US demands Iran publicly declare the Strait of Hormuz open and commit to no more ship attacks

Summary

The United States demanded on July 10 that Iran issue a public statement declaring the Strait of Hormuz fully open to all shipping and committing not to attack civilian vessels transiting the corridor, according to senior US officials briefing reporters anonymously. Axios reported a Saturday (July 11) deadline. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi flew to Muscat on July 11 and issued a joint statement with Oman committing to "safe passage" and a joint working group on "the future administration of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz... and the costs associated with them." The US had demanded a direct, unilateral Iranian declaration that the strait is "toll-free." Araghchi told reporters Iran's Hormuz decisions "would be made jointly with Oman." Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in his first public statement that "the closure of the Strait of Hormuz must remain a priority." Bloomberg reported that internal Tehran power struggles remain the central obstacle to a durable deal.

The split

Washington's demand is for a unilateral Iranian declaration, not a bilateral arrangement. US officials said they expected Iran to say "every channel in the strait will be open and that it will be toll-free." Iran's diplomatic track, led by Araghchi, responded with an Oman-mediated joint statement that sidesteps the "toll-free" language in favour of "costs associated with navigation," leaving open the fee mechanism Iran has separately pursued through the IRGC's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA). The PGSA, which is itself an OFAC-sanctioned entity, requires mandatory insurance from all Hormuz transiting vessels. Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said closure must remain "a priority," while Araghchi was simultaneously in Oman signalling diplomatic engagement. CENTCOM's July 9 "fact check" stated "Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz" and cited US escort of 800+ ships and 380 million barrels since May. The GCC's collective statement invoked UNSC Resolution 2817 and called Iran's attacks "repeated heinous," while also leaving the door open to diplomacy. India's business press noted that Hormuz supplies to India had fallen from 2.8 million to 247,000 barrels per day, a disruption neither India nor China can sustain indefinitely.

By the numbers

• 21%, the share of world seaborne oil that transits the Strait of Hormuz
• 800+, commercial vessels US forces have helped transit since May (CENTCOM)
• 380 million barrels, crude oil facilitated through the strait since May
• 2-6%, war-risk insurance premium as a share of vessel value, up from near-zero before the conflict
• 2.8 million barrels per day, India's Hormuz oil supply in February; 247,000 by April
• 1.4 billion barrels, China's strategic petroleum reserve drawn down to absorb the shock

Why it matters

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil. Demanding a public Iranian statement, rather than a private diplomatic assurance, raises the stakes: any backtracking becomes immediately visible. The gap between the US demand ("toll-free") and the Iran-Oman joint statement ("costs associated") is the central unresolved dispute. The IRGC's PGSA insurance scheme creates a sanctions compliance trap: Western shipowners must either accept insurance from an OFAC-sanctioned entity or risk operating without cover. Iran's internal split between the diplomatic track (Araghchi) and the military track (IRGC/Mojtaba Khamenei) means no agreement reached with the foreign ministry is guaranteed to hold operationally.

What to watch

• Whether the US accepts the Iran-Oman joint statement as satisfying the Saturday deadline, or rejects it as falling short of a direct Iranian declaration
• Whether the PGSA's insurance fees survive the MoU 60-day grace period; if introduced, they breach the US "toll-free" demand and likely trigger a new round of strikes
• Russia's and China's position on UNCLOS compliance by Iran, given both are affected by Hormuz disruption
• Whether Mojtaba Khamenei issues further statements on Hormuz policy, which would clarify whether the IRGC hardline or the Araghchi diplomatic track has authority