Energy

The largest oil supply disruption on record is normalising fast: Brent fell to $69.42 on June 25, flipping to contango for the first time since before the conflict, as Iranian and Gulf crude returns to the market. Goldman Sachs cut its Q4 floor to ~$72. More than 20 tankers crossed post-ceasefire, but 500+ vessels remain queued, and on June 25 the IRGC Navy rejected the Oman-IMO transit corridor, insisting all vessels coordinate via Channel 16, keeping an enforcement hand on the valve. The July 5 OPEC+ review is the first decision that will actually move physical barrels; four consecutive symbolic hikes (March-June) become real as the strait reopens, and Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz at SPIEF June 4 said the kingdom "will remain a resilient energy supplier under all circumstances."

Separately, the Ras Laffan Barzan explosion (13 dead, 18 missing, June 21) cut Qatari LNG to roughly one-fifth of normal, suppressing the post-Hormuz energy-price rebound for gas buyers. Europe's record heat wave drove day-ahead electricity prices up 29%, compounding the energy import bill already elevated by the war. Ukraine's June 23-24 strikes on the Orenburg Gas Processing Plant (45 bn m³/year) and Russia's only helium facility introduce a new variable in Russian domestic gas and missile-programme supply. The ECB raised 25bp in June on inflation imported via the energy shock. Watch the OPEC+ July 5 figure, IRGC-Oman Hormuz corridor standoff, Qatar LNG repair timeline, and whether the Brent contango deepens toward the $65 budget-breakeven floor.