Energy

Energy is dominated by the largest oil supply disruption on record — the IEA's largest recorded disruption, Brent near $118 before falling below $80 on the ceasefire. The premium is unwinding, not gone: roughly 500 vessels are queued to exit the Gulf and full normalisation is months off. The 60-day sanctions waiver is the mechanism actually clearing the shock — and is reversible. Watch Hormuz transit counts and whether the waiver is renewed in August.