pending-decision EU and India clinch the 'mother of all' trade deals
Two decades of stalled talks ended on geopolitics as much as commerce; the text is signed only on paper, with formal signature due by end-2026
Leaders & Succession
Leaders, successions, elections and who actually decides.
state of play
The defining shift is in Tehran: Ali Khamenei was killed in the February war and his son Mojtaba installed as supreme leader in a contested, first-ever hereditary succession, leaving President Pezeshkian selling the US ceasefire from inside a wrecked establishment. The post-war Middle East is now a contest of leverage — Netanyahu trapped between his far right and an election due by October, Erdoğan warning against an East-Med energy bloc he reads as encirclement, and Sisi converting Gaza reconstruction into leverage over a fragile economy.
The Western powers realigned at the Évian G7: Macron hardened the Russia line and dropped the joint communiqué while Carney left with a sheaf of critical-minerals deals. Trade is the other battlefield — Modi and Trump fast-tracked an India-US pact against a July tariff cliff, India sealed its long-stalled FTA with the EU, while Lula and Sheinbaum fought Washington from the other side. Modi, now India's longest continuously serving elected PM, is simultaneously managing a fragile LAC thaw with Beijing, watching his effort to isolate Pakistan backfire, and commissioning indigenous warships.
The autocracies are absorbing strain: Xi refuses broad stimulus amid deflation, Putin downplays a Crimea fuel crisis, Kim orders "exponential" enrichment, and Moscow courted ASEAN at the Kazan summit. Governance is fraying across the Global South — South Africa's GNU cabinet standoff, Kenya's Gen-Z budget protests, Nigeria's contested reform record, Pakistan's IMF budget, Indonesia's sinking rupiah — while Europe churns through Starmer's resignation, Spain's Gómez trial and a Poland-Ukraine honours row. Latin America swings right after Colombia's runoff and Petro's contested transition, even as Milei clears an IMF review and Bolivia's new government sheds ministers. Watch the H2-2026 election calendar, the Israeli vote, and elite health — King Charles and a new papal consistory.
tracking
Heads of state
Trump (US)4 easingMacron's Évian G7 turns Trump toward Ukraine, drops the joint communiqué Xi (China)2 easingIndia and China deepen the LAC thaw while New Delhi protests Chinese roads in Shaksgam Putin (Russia)2 activeASEAN and Putin sign the Kazan Declaration — Marcos co-chairs, Anwar courts Moscow Modi (India)7 pending-decisionEU and India clinch the 'mother of all' trade deals von der Leyen (EU)2 pending-decisionEU and India clinch the 'mother of all' trade deals Macron (France)1 easingMacron's Évian G7 turns Trump toward Ukraine, drops the joint communiqué Merz (Germany) — quiet Starmer (UK)1 transitionStarmer quits, handing Britain its seventh prime minister in a decade Meloni (Italy) — quiet Sánchez (Spain)1 worseningSánchez's wife ordered to stand trial, passport seized Tusk (Poland)1 worseningWarsaw strips Zelensky of its highest honour; Tusk fights to contain the fallout Netanyahu (Israel)2 contested-resultNetanyahu pinned between the Iran ceasefire and his far-right partners Pezeshkian (Iran)1 contested-resultPezeshkian sells the ceasefire at home while hardliners and parliament fight the terms Zelensky (Ukraine)1 worseningWarsaw strips Zelensky of its highest honour; Tusk fights to contain the fallout Erdoğan (Turkey)1 worseningErdogan calls the new East-Med energy bloc an 'illusion' aimed at encircling Turkey MBS (Saudi) — quiet MBZ (UAE) — quiet el-Sisi (Egypt)1 activeSisi turns Gaza diplomacy into leverage as Egypt's economy stays fragile Ramaphosa (S. Africa)1 stalemateA DA reshuffle demand tests who really controls Ramaphosa's cabinet Tinubu (Nigeria)1 activeThree years on, Tinubu says reforms saved Nigeria; fuel is up 463% Ruto (Kenya)1 escalatingRuto signs the Finance Bill early as Gen Z marks the June 25 anniversary Lula (Brazil)1 escalatingLula threatens reciprocity as Trump's 25% tariff collides with Brazil's election Sheinbaum (Mexico)1 pending-decisionSheinbaum walks into the USMCA review having already tariffed China to please Washington Milei (Argentina)1 easingIMF clears Argentina's second review, then orders Milei to keep buying dollars Petro (Colombia)1 contested-resultPetro refuses to concede, alleging US and Israeli interference as his term winds down Prabowo (Indonesia)1 worseningPrabowo's rupiah breaks 18,000 as investors flee Indonesia's worst-performing currency Marcos (Philippines)1 activeASEAN and Putin sign the Kazan Declaration — Marcos co-chairs, Anwar courts Moscow Anwar (Malaysia)1 activeASEAN and Putin sign the Kazan Declaration — Marcos co-chairs, Anwar courts Moscow Kim (N. Korea)1 worseningKim unveils a new enrichment plant and orders 'exponential' nuclear growth Sharif (Pakistan)2 activeModi's bid to isolate Pakistan backfires as Islamabad courts Washington and Beijing Yunus (Bangladesh) — quiet Carney (Canada)1 easingCarney leaves the G7 with $5bn in minerals deals and a hot-mic on Chinese EVs Albanese (Australia) — quiet
Successions & elite health
Khamenei (Iran)2 contested-resultPezeshkian sells the ceasefire at home while hardliners and parliament fight the terms King Charles III1 easingCharles's cancer treatment moves to a 'precautionary phase' — but the palace won't say remission The papacy1 activeLeo XIV summons the whole College of Cardinals — a governing method takes shape Putin2 activeASEAN and Putin sign the Kazan Declaration — Marcos co-chairs, Anwar courts Moscow Xi2 easingIndia and China deepen the LAC thaw while New Delhi protests Chinese roads in Shaksgam
Election calendar
Cabinet & coup turnover
latest
France hosts a summit that hardens the Russia line and claims a 'deep change' in the US approach, at the cost of consensus theatre
Doval and Wang Yi note 'gradual normalisation' and an 'early harvest' sectoral track even as the MEA calls CPEC infrastructure in the China-held Shaksgam Valley 'illegal and invalid'
pending-decision Modi and Trump fast-track the India-US trade pact at the G7
First leaders' talks in 16 months order a 'commercially meaningful' deal; USTR Greer flies to Delhi as a July 24 tariff cliff looms and Congress cries appeasement
An October election looming, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich demand Hezbollah's destruction while opposition brands the US-Iran deal Netanyahu's failure
contested-result Pezeshkian sells the ceasefire at home while hardliners and parliament fight the terms
Iran's president defends US talks and warns of economic ruin, but a new supreme leader and an IRGC-shaped parliament constrain what he can concede
US, Greece, Cyprus and Israel launch an energy centre at Rice University; Ankara invokes 'guarantor state' powers and warns Israeli strikes now threaten Turkey
A decade after Modi vowed to quarantine Pakistan, Islamabad signs minerals and crypto deals with Trump's circle and an 'all-weather' upgrade with Xi — and India is left protesting from the sidelines
easing Charles's cancer treatment moves to a 'precautionary phase' — but the palace won't say remission
Buckingham Palace scales back the King's schedule on doctors' advice; two years on, the type and stage stay undisclosed
The Fund unlocks ~$1bn and praises the disinflation, but pins a reserves floor that critics say could reignite inflation in an election year
A WWII-memory rupture pits President Nawrocki against PM Tusk and Kyiv, with Moscow the only clear winner
An oil-price shock, a corruption scandal in the free-meals programme and an unnerving inner circle drive a crisis of confidence in Jakarta
pending-decision Sheinbaum walks into the USMCA review having already tariffed China to please Washington
Mexico dodged Trump's reciprocal tariffs; now the July 1 joint review turns on whether it can keep China out of North America's supply chain
Manufacturing utilisation near a decade low, retail growth at a three-year trough — and Beijing answers with 'anti-involution', not a consumer bailout
At a 35th-anniversary summit in Kazan, ASEAN and Russia adopt four cooperation documents; the Philippines' Marcos co-chairs even as he leans on Washington
A 30-day deadline lapses, Washington moves on a 25% levy, and Lula readies a retaliation law months before facing Flávio Bolsonaro
An extraordinary consistory on 26–27 June puts war, the synod, just-war doctrine and AI to the cardinals who will one day pick his successor
Drone strikes on refineries trigger the worst fuel shortage on the Black Sea peninsula since 2014; the Kremlin and independent press describe it in opposite terms
Trump courts El-Sisi at the G7 over Gaza reconstruction and the Iran deal; at home inflation, a weak pound and lost Suez revenue still bite
A Madrid judge sends Begoña Gómez to a jury trial on graft charges, deepening the corruption siege around Spain's prime minister
Defence, education and labour ministers gone in ten days; ~100 roadblocks, fuel and food shortages, and calls for the new president to quit
Canada's PM banks 13 critical-minerals partnerships and a France intelligence pact, while caught reassuring Trump over Chinese EV imports
North Korea reveals a fresh uranium-enrichment hall — likely a third site — as Kim says weapons-grade output has more than doubled in five years
4,399 days surpasses Nehru — a record the cabinet calls a democratic milestone and the opposition calls 'dubiously invented'
Markets and FAAC allocations have surged since the subsidy was cut and the naira floated, but petrol has risen more than fourfold and households are still squeezed
contested-result Petro refuses to concede, alleging US and Israeli interference as his term winds down
A lame-duck leftist president, barred from re-election, demands a recount and audit after his bloc loses the runoff by under 1%
The DA's new leader Hill-Lewis tells the president to demote Steenhuisen and reslot its ministers, forcing a constitutional question about the GNU's power to dictate appointments
From Algeria in July to South Sudan's long-delayed vote in December — who votes, when, and where power actually turns over
The Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill to expand parliament to 850 seats and freeze delimitation on the 2011 census fails the two-thirds bar amid a united opposition and southern revolt
Modi inducts INS Dunagiri, Sanshodhak and Agray as a marker of self-reliant defence — and an answer to PLAN's Indian Ocean push
Aurangzeb cuts salaried tax rates and scraps the surcharge while holding to the $7bn IMF programme's consolidation targets and a 17.6% higher revenue goal
Less than two years after a landslide, Keir Starmer resigns amid Reform UK's surge; Andy Burnham is the frontrunner
pending-decision Israel sets 27 October vote — Netanyahu's first ballot since 7 October and three wars
A judge fixes the date Netanyahu wanted, the latest possible; a dissolution bill that would have pulled it earlier is in play
A new finance law with bread VAT and phone-activation duty revives the 2024 grievance; for the first time Ruto signs before June 25, the date that has met him with protests every year
Iran's first hereditary succession installs a mid-ranking cleric the Guards pushed through; a third of the Assembly never signed on
A Trump-aligned lawyer edges leftist Iván Cepeda by under 1%, ending the Petro era and realigning Bogotá toward Washington