Brent peaked near $118 before a US-Iran framework began unwinding the premium
Disputes & Conflicts
Active wars, standoffs and disputes — tracked by where each is heading.
state of play
The dominant thread is the Iran war, now de-escalating: a 14-point US-Iran memorandum signed 17 June halted fighting and reopened the Strait of Hormuz, but the truce runs 60 days and a Lebanon dispute could unravel it. A parallel Russia front continues, with Britain shifting from listing to seizing shadow-fleet tankers, while Ukraine moves to monetise its arsenal in the Gulf. Watch the Lebanon truce and the 60-day clock.
tracking
Active wars
Ukraine–Russia1 activePutin says the fuel crisis won't change the war — Ukraine's strikes say otherwise Iran / Gulf6 disruptedThe largest oil supply disruption on record Gaza / Israel — quiet Sudan — quiet Sahel — quiet DR Congo / M23 — quiet Myanmar — quiet Somalia — quiet Yemen — quiet Syria — quiet Haiti — quiet Ethiopia — quiet Nigeria — quiet Mozambique — quiet Colombia — quiet Pakistan insurgency — quiet Central African Rep. — quiet Cameroon — quiet Mexico (cartels) — quiet
Standoffs & frozen
Taiwan Strait — quiet South China Sea — quiet India–Pakistan — quiet Korea1 worseningKim unveils a new enrichment plant and orders 'exponential' nuclear growth Armenia–Azerbaijan — quiet Israel–Hezbollah — quiet India–China border — quiet Serbia–Kosovo — quiet Essequibo — quiet Western Sahara — quiet Cyprus1 worseningErdogan calls the new East-Med energy bloc an 'illusion' aimed at encircling Turkey Thailand–Cambodia — quiet Egypt–Ethiopia — quiet Morocco–Algeria — quiet Greece–Turkey — quiet Venezuela (internal) — quiet
Coups & state collapse
Ceasefires & peace processes
Proxy & arming dynamics
latest
de-escalating US and Iran sign 14-point memorandum to end the war
Ceasefire extended 60 days for talks on nuclear program, sanctions and reconstruction; a Lebanon dispute threatens to unravel it
General License X resumes Iranian crude exports with banking, insurance and shipping cover after the Hormuz reopening
With Hormuz restricted and the Red Sea still avoided, carriers reroute via the Cape, lifting spot rates 29-129% on key lanes
Doval and Wang Yi note 'gradual normalisation' and an 'early harvest' sectoral track even as the MEA calls CPEC infrastructure in the China-held Shaksgam Valley 'illegal and invalid'
An October election looming, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich demand Hezbollah's destruction while opposition brands the US-Iran deal Netanyahu's failure
contested-result Pezeshkian sells the ceasefire at home while hardliners and parliament fight the terms
Iran's president defends US talks and warns of economic ruin, but a new supreme leader and an IRGC-shaped parliament constrain what he can concede
A decade after Modi vowed to quarantine Pakistan, Islamabad signs minerals and crypto deals with Trump's circle and an 'all-weather' upgrade with Xi — and India is left protesting from the sidelines
Drone strikes on refineries trigger the worst fuel shortage on the Black Sea peninsula since 2014; the Kremlin and independent press describe it in opposite terms
Royal Marines seize the 'Smyrtos' in the Channel days before a sanctions package hitting ships, insurers and procurement networks
Kyiv signs 10-year air-defence and drone partnerships with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar and plans 10 European export offices