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Leaders & Succession

Leaders, successions, elections and who actually decides.

204 live threads · updated 6月25日 · follow (RSS)

state of play

The defining shift is in Tehran: Ali Khamenei was killed in the February war and his son Mojtaba installed as supreme leader in a contested hereditary succession, with President Pezeshkian selling the ceasefire from inside a wrecked establishment, drawing a missile-programme red line in Islamabad June 23 while the Burgenstock road map June 22 locked in a 60-day final-deal window.

European defence hardened in two moves on June 25: the E5 Berlin summit (Merz, Macron, Meloni, Starmer, Tusk) pledged 5% GDP on defence and backed a NATO Hormuz naval mission, pointedly excluding Spain; and Macron and Meloni signed a Franco-Italian defence roadmap at Antibes covering SAMP/T production, nuclear energy cooperation and the "Bromo" satellite project. The NATO Ankara summit July 7-8 arrives with the 5% target hardened. The Starmer resignation leaves Britain on course for its seventh prime minister in a decade; Andy Burnham is the sole declared candidate, nominations open July 9.

The Board of Peace is "recalibrating" at a Cyprus resort June 24-25: $17B pledged, 1% transferred, phase two stuck on Clause 8 disarmament. The Venezuela twin earthquakes (M7.2 + M7.5, June 24; 164+ dead, USGS red-alert) opened a humanitarian crisis that tests Maduro's isolation. India's water minister Patil vowed "not a single drop" to Pakistan on June 22, prompting Defence Minister Khwaja Asif to threaten war. The autocracies absorb strain: Xi refuses broad stimulus amid deflation, Putin downplays Crimea fuel crisis as Ukraine's Orenburg strikes bite, Kim orders "exponential" enrichment. Watch the July 9 UK nominations, the Ankara summit 5% spending text, and the 60-day final-deal clock expiring August 22.

tracking

Heads of state
Trump (US)31 active双子地震でベネズエラで少なくとも164人死亡、救助チームがラ・グアイラに集結 Xi (China)5 worseningXi holds the line: no big stimulus as China fights deflation and the Iran shock Putin (Russia)8 activePutin says the fuel crisis won't change the war, Ukraine's strikes say otherwise Modi (India)15 easingIndia and China deepen the LAC thaw while New Delhi protests Chinese roads in Shaksgam von der Leyen (EU)9 activeJune European Council lands the EU budget architecture and opens the Ukraine cluster Macron (France)10 active欧州『E5』、スペイン抜きで国防費5%とホルムズ海峡海軍作戦を誓約 Merz (Germany)8 active欧州『E5』、スペイン抜きで国防費5%とホルムズ海峡海軍作戦を誓約 Starmer (UK)4 active欧州『E5』、スペイン抜きで国防費5%とホルムズ海峡海軍作戦を誓約 Meloni (Italy)8 active欧州『E5』、スペイン抜きで国防費5%とホルムズ海峡海軍作戦を誓約 Sánchez (Spain)4 contested-resultSánchez survives a marathon Congress grilling, refuses to resign or call elections Tusk (Poland)6 active欧州『E5』、スペイン抜きで国防費5%とホルムズ海峡海軍作戦を誓約 Netanyahu (Israel)9 de-escalatingルビオ、イスラエル・レバノン協議が「意図の宣言」に近づいていると表明。双方は他の主張を否定 Pezeshkian (Iran)6 activeIAEAとイランが核査察官の帰還時期をめぐり対立 Zelensky (Ukraine)4 worseningWarsaw strips Zelensky of its highest honour; Tusk fights to contain the fallout Erdoğan (Turkey)6 activeİmamoğlu's 'political espionage' trial opens in Silivri MBS (Saudi)5 worseningNEOM halts The Line until after 2030 with a $16bn cancellation bill MBZ (UAE)5 activeMBZ pivots from war footing to Arab coordination as Hormuz reopens el-Sisi (Egypt)5 activeSisi turns Gaza diplomacy into leverage as Egypt's economy stays fragile Ramaphosa (S. Africa)3 active南アフリカの6月30日移民期限が大陸規模の大規模避難を引き起こす Tinubu (Nigeria)4 worsening46 Oyo schoolchildren held five weeks as Tinubu's security emergency strains Ruto (Kenya)3 escalatingRuto signs the Finance Bill early as Gen Z marks the June 25 anniversary Lula (Brazil)9 active双子地震でベネズエラで少なくとも164人死亡、救助チームがラ・グアイラに集結 Sheinbaum (Mexico)10 worseningHarfuch says the CJNG is fracturing into regional factions after El Mencho's death Milei (Argentina)8 activeNew forensics revive the $LIBRA case; watchdogs ask a judge to summon Milei Petro (Colombia)7 contested-resultCepeda files 57,000 challenges as petrismo contests the runoff it lost by ~250,000 Prabowo (Indonesia)3 worseningPrabowo's rupiah breaks 18,000 as investors flee Indonesia's worst-performing currency Marcos (Philippines)4 escalatingClosest Scarborough naval encounter in three years as PLAN frigates shadow a Philippine warship Anwar (Malaysia)3 pending-decisionAnwar faces a July test as Johor and Negeri Sembilan call snap polls Kim (N. Korea)5 activeKim commissions the Choe Hyon, his largest warship, and declares a nuclear navy underway Sharif (Pakistan)4 easingSharif signs the 'Islamabad MoU' as guarantor of the US-Iran ceasefire Yunus (Bangladesh)1 transitionBNP sweeps Bangladesh's first post-Hasina vote; Tarique Rahman to be PM Carney (Canada)3 pending-decisionCarney names the Mackenzie Valley Highway his first 'national interest' project Albanese (Australia)4 activeAlbanese's revamped Division 296 super tax takes effect 1 July 2026
Election calendar
Cabinet & coup turnover

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