Leaders & Succession
Leaders, successions, elections and who actually decides.
state of play
The defining shift is in Tehran: Ali Khamenei was killed in the February war and his son Mojtaba installed as supreme leader in a contested hereditary succession, with President Pezeshkian selling the ceasefire from inside a wrecked establishment, drawing a missile-programme red line in Islamabad June 23 while the Burgenstock road map June 22 locked in a 60-day final-deal window.
European defence hardened in two moves on June 25: the E5 Berlin summit (Merz, Macron, Meloni, Starmer, Tusk) pledged 5% GDP on defence and backed a NATO Hormuz naval mission, pointedly excluding Spain; and Macron and Meloni signed a Franco-Italian defence roadmap at Antibes covering SAMP/T production, nuclear energy cooperation and the "Bromo" satellite project. The NATO Ankara summit July 7-8 arrives with the 5% target hardened. The Starmer resignation leaves Britain on course for its seventh prime minister in a decade; Andy Burnham is the sole declared candidate, nominations open July 9.
The Board of Peace is "recalibrating" at a Cyprus resort June 24-25: $17B pledged, 1% transferred, phase two stuck on Clause 8 disarmament. The Venezuela twin earthquakes (M7.2 + M7.5, June 24; 164+ dead, USGS red-alert) opened a humanitarian crisis that tests Maduro's isolation. India's water minister Patil vowed "not a single drop" to Pakistan on June 22, prompting Defence Minister Khwaja Asif to threaten war. The autocracies absorb strain: Xi refuses broad stimulus amid deflation, Putin downplays Crimea fuel crisis as Ukraine's Orenburg strikes bite, Kim orders "exponential" enrichment. Watch the July 9 UK nominations, the Ankara summit 5% spending text, and the 60-day final-deal clock expiring August 22.