US winter wheat harvest forecast at 1.048 billion bushels, smallest since 1965, as Plains drought cuts hard red winter crop 36%

Summary

The US Department of Agriculture's June 2026 WASDE report projects the 2026-27 winter wheat harvest at 1.048 billion bushels, the smallest since 1965 and 25% below the 2025 crop. Hard red winter wheat, the variety grown across Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas that underpins US bread flour and export supply, came in at 514.8 million bushels, down 36% year on year. The collapse follows two consecutive La Nina-driven dry winters across the Southern Plains and worsening depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer, which irrigates large stretches of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. USDA projects the farm-gate average price at US$6.50 per bushel for the full 2026-27 marketing year, with ending stocks falling to a 15-year low.

The split

US wheat growers and Plains state agricultural groups are pressing Washington for emergency credit facilities and accelerated crop insurance payouts, pointing to acreage abandonment rates that rival the early 1970s drought years. USDA frames the harvest as a supply correction within normal market parameters, projecting that higher prices will restore planted acreage in the 2027 planting cycle. International food-security analysts at FAO and WFP read the US shortfall differently: combined with the Hormuz shipping squeeze affecting Black Sea wheat route alternatives, the reduction tightens the global bread-grain balance sheet. Egypt, Algeria and Morocco have secured forward contracts with France and Australia; lower-income Sub-Saharan importers without hard-currency reserves for forward markets face open spot-price exposure.

By the numbers

• 1.048 billion bushels, projected 2026-27 US winter wheat production (lowest since 1965).
• 25%, year-on-year decline in total US winter wheat.
• 514.8 million bushels, hard red winter wheat forecast, down 36%.
• 63%, share of US winter wheat in drought-affected areas as of June 9, 2026.
• 3.9 million, fewer acres planted in Texas versus 2025.
• 1.35 million, fewer acres planted in Oklahoma versus 2025.
• US$6.50 per bushel, USDA projected farm-gate average for 2026-27.
• US$7.20 per bushel, peak Chicago Board of Trade soft red winter futures in late April 2026.
• 15-year low, projected 2026-27 US wheat ending stocks.

Why it matters

The US is the world's fourth-largest wheat exporter and the primary supplier of hard red winter wheat to Middle Eastern and North African markets. A 36% decline in that specific class, simultaneous with shipping insurance surcharges on Hormuz-routed vessels, removes two buffers that import-dependent governments rely on to stabilise domestic bread prices. Hard red winter wheat has no fast substitute: it is the class specified in most Middle Eastern flour-milling contracts, and the 2027 Southern Plains crop will not be harvested until June 2027 at the earliest. The Ogallala depletion dynamic means this is structural, not a single bad year.

What to watch

• Whether Kansas and Colorado, which grow the largest share of hard red winter, record better or worse-than-projected final yields as harvest moves north through July.
• USDA's July WASDE update, which will incorporate actual harvest data from Texas and Oklahoma.
• FAO global cereal market monitor for second-half 2026, expected late July, which will integrate the US shortfall with Australian and French crop forecasts.
• Whether Sub-Saharan governments request emergency grain procurement support from the World Food Programme ahead of the September lean season.

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