Gold closes Q2 2026 down 14%, its steepest quarterly fall on record, at $3,986

Summary

Gold ended the June 30 Asian session near $3,942, a year-to-date low, and is set to close Q2 2026 down roughly 14%, the steepest quarterly percentage decline on record. The metal last traded above $4,000 on June 24 and is down about 29% from its January 2026 all-time high of $5,597.91, erasing the entire 2026 gain. The sell-off began on June 5, when a stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls print sent gold down 3.3% in a single session, ending the rate-cut narrative and triggering outflows from gold ETFs. The subsequent 米国とイランが14項目の覚書に署名し戦争終結 further eroded safe-haven demand: the war-risk premium that had driven gold to its January peak unwound as Hormuz reopened and shipping resumed. Markets are now pricing at least two US Federal Reserve rate hikes by year-end, raising the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Q2 2026 goes in the record books as the worst quarter for gold since benchmark records began.

Why it matters

The January 2026 gold peak was partly financed by 誰の金か flows from central banks and retail investors in Asia and the Gulf seeking dollar alternatives, driven by sanction fears and the Iran war premium. A 29% reversal questions that thesis and may reduce central bank accumulation rates in H2 2026, particularly if US Federal Reserve follows through with hikes. For producers, margins are compressing: all-in sustaining costs for major miners cluster around $1,200-$1,500 per ounce, so $3,986 still implies fat margins, but the direction matters for expansion capex decisions.

What to watch

• The June 30 Q2 close price, which cements the record quarterly decline figure.
• July US CPI and non-farm payrolls as the next key drivers.
• Whether the PCE data released this week pushes gold toward the $3,900 level analysts have cited.
• Central bank purchasing data for Q2 2026, expected from IMF in late July.