China drives toward ~140 orbital launches in 2026, a new national record
Megaconstellation batches and a surprise Long March 12B maiden flight push cadence to one launch every ~2.5 days
Summary
China is on pace for roughly 140 orbital launches in 2026, a ~52% jump over 2025's national record of 93. By end-March it had logged 34, about one launch every 2.5 days. The driver is megaconstellation deployment: Guowang and Qianfan batches launching every two-to-three weeks could consume 70+ launches alone. June milestones underline the tempo: a surprise Long March 12B maiden flight on 1 June carried paying customers and skipped its planned booster landing; the Long March 3B returned to flight 16 June after a shared upper-stage investigation; and the Long March 7A flew its 16th mission 23 June with a classified GTO payload. The cadence underwrites both China's internet constellations and its military space build-out.
By the numbers
- ~140, projected 2026 orbital launches (target).
- 93, 2025 national record being broken; ~52% increase sought.
- 34, launches logged by end-March 2026 (~1 every 2.5 days).
- 70+, launches the two megaconstellations alone may consume in 2026.
Why it matters
Launch cadence is the bottleneck for everything else China wants in orbit, broadband, recon, missile-tracking. A sustained ~140/year rate narrows the gap with US cadence and underwrites the Guowang/Qianfan race against Starlink.
What to watch
- Whether the second-half pace holds to hit ~140.
- First successful Long March 12B booster recovery (reusability milestone).
- Guowang/Qianfan batch frequency as the constraint binds.