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Indonesia's 2026 nickel-mining quota hits its ceiling, starving smelters

With RKAB approvals maxed out, the mid-year supplementary round becomes the whole market

鉱物·貿易· worsening 誰の金か·静かな変化 ·5 論調 · ·rbtfl 更新 2026年6月28日

Summary

Indonesia's approved 2026 nickel-ore mining quota, the RKAB, has hit the ceiling the energy ministry ESDM fixed early in the year, Mysteel reported, with a mid-year supplementary application window now the only path to more supply. The cap of roughly 260 to 270 million tonnes sits far below the 340 to 350 million tonnes Indonesia's smelters need, a deficit that has pushed utilisation down and forced RKEF smelters to import ore from the Philippines. Jakarta cut the quota by about 30% from 2025 to defend prices, and LME nickel touched $20,000 a tonne in May, its highest since 2024. The size and timing of any supplementary release is now the market's central unknown.

The split

China's Mysteel and SMM, whose readers run the smelters, frame this as a feedstock crunch and watch the supplementary round for relief. Indonesia's Petromindo reports it from the supply side, smelters cutting runs and stockpiling Philippine ore. The Diplomat reads Jakarta's squeeze geopolitically, asking whether tighter Indonesian output is quietly undercutting the Philippines' bid to build its own downstream processing rather than just exporting raw ore.

By the numbers

  • 260 to 270 million tonnes, approved 2026 RKAB quota, about 30% below 2025
  • 340 to 350 million tonnes, Indonesian smelter ore demand for 2026
  • 70 to 75%, projected smelter utilisation, down from about 90%
  • $20,000 a tonne, LME nickel high on May 6, a level last seen in 2024
  • 30 million tonnes, estimated 2026 Philippine ore imports into Indonesia

Why it matters

Indonesia mines and processes most of the world's nickel, so its quota knob sets the floor under battery and stainless-steel costs worldwide. A maxed-out RKAB with no automatic top-up keeps ore scarce, props up LME nickel and deepens the region's reliance on Philippine ore, handing Manila unexpected leverage.

What to watch

  • The size and release schedule of the mid-year supplementary RKAB quota
  • Whether ESDM pairs more volume with the higher royalties and HPM benchmark it has signalled
  • Philippine ore export volumes and any move by Manila to keep more ore at home
  • LME nickel, and whether it holds above $18,000 or fades on a quota top-up