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COMEX copper stocks hit a record as the Section 232 clock runs down

US warehouses hoard 652,000 tonnes while LME stocks drain into a three-month low

鉱物·貿易· worsening 誰の金か·静かな変化 ·5 論調 · ·rbtfl 更新 2026年6月28日

Summary

Copper inventories in US COMEX-registered warehouses hit a record 652,200 tonnes as of last week, up from about 80,000 tonnes in early 2025, while LME stocks drained to a three-month low near 352,100 tonnes. The split is one trade: traders are front-running a possible US tariff on refined copper, pulling metal across the Atlantic and Pacific into American sheds. The Commerce Department must deliver its Section 232 copper report by June 30, the trigger for a phased refined-copper duty proposed at 15% in 2027 rising to 30% in 2028. Ore, concentrate, cathode and scrap stay exempt. Goldman Sachs lifted its year-end LME forecast to $13,735 a tonne and sees a path above $14,000 if duties land.

The split

US-facing desks frame the inventory pile as bullish positioning into the tariff. China's SunSirs reads it as a top: once the duty is fixed, the stockpiling demand inflating COMEX evaporates and exposes the drained LME, a bull-to-bear turn. ING stresses the policy detail US coverage skips, that feedstock is exempt, so the squeeze is narrowly about refined metal and the arbitrage it created, not the whole copper chain.

By the numbers

  • 652,200 tonnes, record COMEX copper stocks, from about 80,000 in February 2025
  • 352,100 tonnes, LME stocks, a three-month low
  • June 30, deadline for the Commerce Section 232 report
  • 15% to 30%, proposed refined-copper duty, 2027 then 2028
  • 140,000 tonnes, average monthly US refined-copper imports since January 2025, nearly double 2024
  • $13,735, Goldman's raised year-end LME forecast, with upside above $14,000

Why it matters

Whoever controls refined copper controls the energy transition and the grid. The tariff threat has already relocated a chunk of the world's visible copper into the US, tightening everyone else's market and handing leverage to producers like Codelco, Freeport and Glencore. The June 30 report decides whether the distortion entrenches or unwinds.

What to watch

  • The Commerce report on or before June 30, and whether refined copper is included
  • Whether the COMEX-LME spread collapses once the decision is known
  • Chinese smelter behaviour as exempt cathode and concentrate flows reprice
  • LME stock levels, already at a three-month low, for signs of a physical squeeze