regional analysis

Reports President Petro's January 2026 move to stop using UNODC production estimates, citing methodology disputes, while Colombia's National Police published its own figures claiming a 56.9% cultivation drop, a statistical contest over whether the record is real.

“Petro says his government will no longer use UN cocaine-production estimates, citing inaccuracies in the methodology.”

Sets the energy centre against Turkey's new maritime-jurisdiction bill, reading both as competing legal facts on the water, Ankara asserting an extended continental shelf as Athens and Nicosia lock in the US-Israel partnership.

“A new Turkey maritime draft bill fuels East-Med tensions with Greece and Cyprus.”

Analyses conviction prospects and the entanglement with ICC warrants against Duterte allies (incl. Senator dela Rosa), arguing the trial is as much a contest over the 2028 succession as over Sara Duterte's conduct.

“The trial is a battle over 2028 as much as Sara Duterte's conduct, complicated by ICC warrants reaching into the Senate that will judge her.”

Charts Petro's late-term polling rebound (a soldier pay rise among the drivers), recasting the lame duck as a still-potent opposition figure as the left regroups for the post-Petro era.

“The resurgence of Gustavo Petro and the Colombian left.”

Maps the convergence of illicit economy, organised crime and terrorism in the Sahel: armed groups offer territorial protection for a profit share, while criminal networks provide the transnational smuggling infrastructure that moves gold to international markets.

“Illegal gold mining is a profitable business for jihadists, who offer protection in exchange for a share of the profits.”