Sudan's Civil War

What it is

Sudan's civil war is a direct military conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), the national army led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary commanded by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti. The war began on April 15, 2023, when fighting erupted simultaneously in Khartoum and across Darfur. Both men had cooperated to seize state power in October 2021, ousting Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, and had jointly blocked a civilian transition. The trigger was a dispute over the RSF's integration into the SAF under a proposed civilian transition framework. Burhan and Hemedti could not agree on a timeline or command structure. The war quickly became the world's most severe humanitarian emergency.

History

The RSF descended from the Janjaweed, Arab militias that Sudan's government under Omar al-Bashir deployed during the Darfur genocide beginning in 2003. Bashir formalized the RSF in 2013, and Hemedti grew the force's financial base through Darfur gold revenues and security contracts in Yemen and Libya. After Bashir's ouster in 2019, the RSF and SAF entered an uneasy power-sharing arrangement. The October 2021 coup cemented that partnership temporarily, but negotiations over a civilian hand-back collapsed by early 2023.

In the war's first phase, the RSF moved quickly. It captured large portions of Khartoum, all five Darfur state capitals, and by December 2023 Wad Madani, the capital of Al Jazirah state and Sudan's agricultural heartland. The SAF launched a major counteroffensive in September 2024, recapturing Al Jazirah, breaking the siege of the General Command headquarters in January 2025, and restoring control of Khartoum by March 2025, including the presidential palace, the Central Bank of Sudan, and Khartoum International Airport. El Fasher, the last SAF-held Darfur state capital, fell to the RSF in October 2025 after an 18-month siege.

Current state

As of mid-2026, the conflict spans multiple simultaneous fronts. The SAF is advancing in Blue Nile state (see スーダン国軍、青ナイル州マルケンを奪還。東部戦線が激化) to cut RSF supply lines running south from Darfur. RSF drone strikes on SAF logistics and urban infrastructure have intensified markedly (see スーダンの紛争がドローン主導に変容、5か月で民間人1,000人超が死亡). The RSF maintains pressure on El Obeid, the North Kordofan capital (see RSFがエル・オベイド周辺に集結、29カ国が次のエル・ファシェルになると警告). The SAF launched an operation around Kulbus in West Darfur in early July 2026 (see SAF系合同軍がダルフール西部クルブスを制圧、ファシェル陥落後最大の西部戦果). The humanitarian toll is catastrophic. The World Food Programme counts 19.5 million people acutely food-insecure, 9 million internally displaced, and famine confirmed in multiple areas. Credible estimates place the death toll above 60,000, with many analysts putting the figure considerably higher.

Relationships

External states have made this a proxy war as much as a civil one. The UAE channels weapons to the RSF through a logistics network running via Libya and an airbridge through Ethiopia (see UAE、スーダンRSFへの武器空輸路をエチオピア経由に迂回 and 調査報道、UAE支援によるリビア国内のRSF訓練キャンプ4か所を特定、コロンビア人・ロシア人要員も確認). Iran and Egypt support the SAF, including with armed drones and arms supplies. The RSF administers a parallel financial system in territory it holds, extending to issuing rival banknotes (see RSF支配地域で新たに印刷されたスーダン・ポンド紙幣が流通し、経済分断が深まる), funded substantially by Darfur gold exports. China has continued engagement with the SAF-aligned government, canceling part of Sudan's sovereign debt in 2026. The famine and displacement crisis has already destabilized eastern Chad, parts of South Sudan, and Ethiopia's border regions, with spillover into the Sahel.

What to watch

SAF progress in Blue Nile and whether it can sever RSF supply routes before the rainy season sets in. International accountability for UAE arms flows, which the US Senate scrutinized in 2026, and whether that pressure translates into actual supply cuts. Humanitarian access into El Fasher and RSF-held Darfur, where famine is confirmed and aid is blocked or manipulated (see スーダンの飢饉が拡大：食料不安2500万人、避難民1300万人、飢饉リスク地域20カ所超). Any move toward de facto partition, with Darfur and western Omdurman solidifying as an RSF-administered zone. And whether the acceleration in drone attacks escalates into sustained strikes on civilian infrastructure across SAF-controlled Sudan.