NOAA forecasts a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season as El Nino suppresses activity

Summary

NOAA's 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, issued ahead of the June 1 season start, projects an above-55% probability of a below-normal season, with 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 becoming hurricanes and 1 to 3 reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher). An average Atlantic season produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. The primary driver of the subdued forecast is the rapid development of El Nino in the tropical Pacific, which increases wind shear over the Atlantic, disrupting storm formation and intensification. The season's first named system, Tropical Storm Atlantic Hurricanes Arthur, formed on June 17 in the Gulf of America and made landfall near Galveston, Texas as a minimal tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Four deaths were attributed to Arthur, and Aon estimated damages at over US$100 million.

The split

US Gulf Coast and Florida media covered Arthur's track and the relatively minor impact compared to more significant storms in recent years. Reinsurance and catastrophe-modelling coverage (Artemis, Aon) tracked the economic loss estimate from Arthur and assessed what a below-normal season means for property insurance pricing in high-risk states. Caribbean and Central American media followed the broader season outlook because even below-normal seasons can produce destructive individual storms. Climate scientists noted that warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, even in an El Nino year, create an underlying potential for intensity that contradicts the suppressive effect on storm count.

By the numbers

• 8-14, NOAA projected named storms for 2026
• 3-6, projected hurricanes
• 1-3, projected major hurricanes (Category 3+)
• 55%, NOAA probability of a below-normal season
• June 17, 2026, date Tropical Storm Arthur formed
• 40 knots (45 mph), Arthur's peak intensity
• 4, fatalities attributed to Arthur
• US$100 million+, Aon estimated damage from Arthur

Why it matters

Even a below-normal Atlantic Hurricanes season can produce devastating storms because season totals do not capture landfall risk or individual storm intensity. The 2026 season is unfolding against a backdrop of record coastal development in Florida, the Carolinas and the Gulf Coast, meaning that even a relatively weak storm that makes a direct landfall can produce significant economic losses. The intersection of El Nino suppression effects and anomalously warm Atlantic SSTs creates uncertainty about whether the below-normal forecast will hold. Insurance markets, state emergency preparedness agencies and hurricane research organisations are all calibrating their positions.

What to watch

• National Hurricane Center tracking updates through August to November, the peak of the Atlantic season
• Whether El Nino strengthening through autumn 2026 further reduces storm frequency
• Gulf of America and Caribbean sea surface temperatures, which remain a wild card offsetting El Nino suppression
• FEMA and state emergency management agency responses to Arthur and future systems