WMO raises El Niño intensity forecast to record-breaking level with 80-90% probability through November 2026 Multi-model ensembles show sea-surface anomalies exceeding 2°C in the central and eastern Pacific, a trajectory not seen in 155 years of records; June 2026 global ocean temperatures already broke all prior June marks 長期戦 ·9 論調 ·7月4日