Cobalt

The DRC set CMOC's 2026 cobalt export quota at 31,200 tonnes against 117,549 tonnes produced in 2025; a June 1 work stoppage at TFM raises copper output risk as CMOC guides 760-820 kt for the year

Kinshasa replaced its 2025 export ban with strict annual caps; cobalt hit $57,320/t, but artisanal miners largely escape the ceiling

The first EV battery recycling shakeout separated commercial-scale survivors from undercapitalised startups; Redwood Materials reached a $6 billion valuation, Germany's cylib raised €63.4 million, and EU Battery Passport compliance deadlines gave the sector a regulatory floor

The 'tightest-ever' physical market pushed cobalt to a two-year high before a Q2 correction; Electra's 5,120 tpa Ontario refinery targets IRA-compliant battery supply; DRC's export quota and LFP's 55% share frame the long-run cobalt substitution debate

China's largest cobalt-battery materials company expanded simultaneously into Korean EV supply, Indonesian cell manufacturing, and European recycling in 2026, building a vertically integrated position from DRC mining to end-of-life battery recovery

The European Commission published its second CRMA Strategic Projects selection in March 2026, bringing the total to 94 projects; member states must issue permits within 24 months; the CRMA sets 2030 supply benchmarks requiring 10% domestic extraction and 40% EU processing

The Mutanda-KCC stake transfer gives Washington indirect control over two of the DRC's largest mines; a six-month Takeover Panel cooling-off period on the Rio Tinto mega-merger expires in August 2026

The House-passed reconciliation bill terminates the IRA's wind production and investment credits for projects beginning after 2026, extends and modifies the 45X advanced manufacturing credit, bars FEOC-sourced material from 45X eligibility, and adds a new metallurgical coal credit; Senate outcome uncertain