Syria Conflict

What it is

The Syria conflict refers to the civil war that began in March 2011 and the ongoing transitional contest that followed the fall of President Bashar al-Assad on December 8, 2024. The war grew from Arab Spring protests into a multi-sided armed conflict involving the Assad government, Iranian-backed proxies, Hezbollah, Russian forces, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), US troops, Turkish-backed factions, and eventually Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist armed movement that led the final offensive. The central question today is whether Syria's transitional government, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa (the former HTS commander), can consolidate a fragile state amid sectarian pressure, Israeli military occupation in the south, a semi-autonomous Kurdish northeast, and a population that remains one of the world's most displaced.

History

Protests against Assad's government erupted in Deraa in March 2011 and spread nationally. Violent crackdown, including chemical weapons use later documented by the UN, drove the armed uprising into dozens of factions by 2013. Russia intervened on Assad's side in September 2015, airpower proving decisive in recapturing Aleppo in December 2016 and Ghouta in 2018. The US backed the Kurdish-led SDF from 2015 to counter the Islamic State, creating a parallel authority in northeast Syria. By 2020 Assad controlled roughly 70% of the country, but the economy had collapsed under US and EU sanctions. HTS consolidated Idlib province and, on November 27, 2024, launched a blitzkrieg offensive. Within 12 days it captured Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and Damascus; Assad fled to Russia on December 8, ending more than 50 years of Baath Party rule and leaving more than 13 million Syrians displaced.

Current state

Ahmed al-Sharaa was named Syria's transitional president on January 29, 2025, and a transitional government took office on March 29, 2025, following an interim constitutional declaration on March 13. As of July 2026, the People's Assembly has still not been constituted, generating what UN deputy special envoy Claudio Cordone called "anxiety" at the June 22, 2026 Security Council briefing. Overall violence fell 44% in 2025 versus 2024, but the year was not peaceful: March 2025 identity-based violence in Alawite-majority coastal areas killed at least 1,400 people, and July 2025 clashes in Sweida killed approximately 1,000, including at least 539 Druze civilians, with 196 documented extrajudicial executions and 33 villages burned. A January 2026 ceasefire-and-integration agreement resolved the SDF conflict in the northeast, tracked in Syria's Kurdish integration deal half-built: 80% of SDF land ceded, implementation still tense. Over 1.6 million refugees have returned since December 2024, but 7 million remain internally displaced and 4.5 million remain abroad; ACLED recorded 7,692 conflict deaths in 2025 and over 90% of Syrians live below the poverty line.

Relationships

Israel has conducted more than 1,000 airstrikes and 400 ground incursions inside Syria since Assad's fall in December 2024, destroying much of the former Syrian Arab Army's weapons stockpile and occupying an expanded buffer zone in the south beyond the 1974 Disengagement Agreement line. Al-Sharaa has called a security pact with Israel a "necessity" while Syria presses for full Israeli withdrawal and revival of the 1974 framework, a negotiation tracked in سوريا وإسرائيل تتجهان نحو اتفاق أمني بينما تواصل الضربات الإسرائيلية استهداف دمشق. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on June 25, 2026 that Israeli forces would remain in Syria "as long as required," complicating that track, as covered in نتنياهو يستبعد الانسحاب من لبنان وسوريا وغزة. The US maintains troops in northeast Syria, a leverage point in SDF integration talks. Russia, Syria's former patron, has lost its central role. Turkey backs the Syrian National Army in the north and holds significant influence over the transitional government's security posture. The ICC prosecutor visited Damascus in January 2025 to explore accountability pathways for the 13-year war.

What to watch

Whether the People's Assembly is constituted and a permanent constitutional framework adopted, and whether al-Sharaa can convert HTS's military control into legitimate civilian governance. Whether the Israel-Syria security pact negotiations produce an agreed withdrawal timeline and a revival of the 1974 disengagement framework. Sweida stability, where Druze leaders have resisted Damascus authority and the July 2025 violence left deep grievances. SDF integration implementation in the northeast and the fate of IS detention facilities under Damascus. The humanitarian trajectory: donor reconstruction funding remains far below the estimated need, and over 90% of Syrians live below the poverty line as of 2026.