SMR order book swells on AI power demand: Oklo-Switch 12GW, Rolls-Royce wins Sweden
Data-center developers and European utilities lock in small modular reactors years before first concrete, betting on factory-built nuclear to feed compute and grids
Summary
Small modular reactor commitments are stacking up well ahead of first concrete. Sweden's Videberg Kraft (80% Vattenfall) picked Rolls-Royce SMR to build three 470MW units on the Värö peninsula, its first new nuclear in 40+ years, extending Rolls-Royce wins at UK Wylfa (up to eight units) and in Czechia. In the US, Oklo signed a master agreement with data-center developer Switch for up to 12GW of Aurora reactors over 20 years, part of a >14GW pipeline. Demand is driven by AI Electricity load and grid-supply shortfalls. Execution and first-of-a-kind cost risk remain unproven; most output lands in the 2030s.
By the numbers
- 12 GW, Oklo-Switch master agreement, over 20 years.
- 3 × 470 MW, Rolls-Royce SMRs selected for Sweden (~12 TWh/yr).
- Up to 8, Rolls-Royce units possible at Wylfa, UK.
14 GW, Oklo's stated customer pipeline.
- Mid-2030s, earliest grid delivery for most of these orders.
Why it matters
AI compute and grid shortfalls have turned SMRs from slideware into a contracted pipeline, with tech buyers and utilities pre-committing gigawatts. But none of these designs is yet built at commercial scale, the gap between order book and operating fleet is the whole story.
What to watch
- First-of-a-kind construction cost and schedule on any SMR design.
- Whether data-center PPAs convert into financed, sited projects.
- Regulatory approvals (NRC, ONR) and HALEU/LEU fuel availability.