US gas stays cheap as Permian supply outruns record LNG pull
EIA nudges its 2026 Henry Hub forecast up to $3.60 even as associated-gas growth keeps prices flat against all-time LNG feedgas demand
Summary
US gas stayed structurally cheap through June 2026 even as LNG feedgas demand ran near record highs, the EIA raised its 2026 Henry Hub forecast to $3.60/MMBtu (from $3.50) yet trimmed 2027 to $3.46, because higher crude prices are pulling out ever more associated gas in the Permian. Marketed production is set to grow 3.3% (~3.9 Bcf/d) in 2026. LNG feedgas hit an all-time 19.7 Bcf/d in March, eased on maintenance, then recovered to 18.8 Bcf/d in mid-June as Golden Pass, Freeport and Corpus Christi ramped. Storage built +73 Bcf to 2.759 Tcf for the week ended 12 June, ~5.8% above the five-year average. The result: the US exports record volumes into a tight world while paying a fraction of TTF or JKM.
By the numbers
- $3.60/MMBtu, EIA's 2026 Henry Hub forecast (up $0.10 from May); $3.46 for 2027.
- +3.3% / ~3.9 Bcf/d, projected 2026 US marketed-production growth.
- 19.7 Bcf/d, record LNG feedgas (March 2026); 18.8 Bcf/d in mid-June.
- +73 Bcf, storage build, week ended 12 June; stocks 2.759 Tcf.
- ~5.8%, how far stocks sit above the five-year average.
Why it matters
The widest US-to-world gas-price gap on record is the engine of the LNG export build-out: cheap Henry Hub feedstock plus expensive TTF/JKM is the arbitrage funding Golden Pass and the next wave. As long as Permian associated gas keeps growing, US prices stay capped even with record exports.
What to watch
- Whether Q4 power and LNG demand lifts Henry Hub toward the EIA's $3.47 winter call.
- Permian associated-gas growth, the cap on prices and the floor under exports.
- Feedgas recovery to fresh records as new trains commission.