Headline returns below 4% even as Q1 GDP contracts 0.6%, framing the central bank's June pause
Sovereign Debt
Defaults, the IMF queue and who is quietly going broke.
state of play
Senegal is the live test case: ~$13bn in undisclosed borrowing surfaced by a 2024 audit pushed debt near 132% of GDP, and Dakar is in a standoff with the IMF over restructuring. PM Sonko's May dismissal removed an obstacle but added volatility; bonds trade at distressed levels. The episode also scrutinises IMF surveillance. Watch whether talks reopen and how other hidden-debt cases price.
tracking
Distress & defaults
Senegal1 activeSenegal's hidden-debt crisis deepens as IMF talks stall and bonds crash Egypt4 activeSisi turns Gaza diplomacy into leverage as Egypt's economy stays fragile Pakistan7 easingIndia and China deepen the LAC thaw while New Delhi protests Chinese roads in Shaksgam Argentina8 easingArgentina's May inflation falls to 2.1%, the lowest in eight months Kenya3 escalatingRuto signs the Finance Bill early as Gen Z marks the June 25 anniversary Ghana — quiet Zambia — quiet Sri Lanka — quiet Ethiopia1 activeTrump reopens GERD mediation; Sisi calls the Nile a red line Tunisia — quiet Bolivia1 worseningPaz's cabinet hollows out as Bolivia's worst crisis in 40 years hits the streets
IMF programs
Lenders (China / Paris Club)
latest
INDEC prints 2.1% as the disinflation holds, though still above Milei's sub-2% goal
Two deputy governors dissent to hold at 6.75% as inflation returns to the band; the next decision lands 26 June
The Fund unlocks ~$1bn and praises the disinflation, but pins a reserves floor that critics say could reignite inflation in an election year
The float climbs toward the crawling-band top while reserves hit a seven-year high — the tension at the heart of the IMF program
A third straight quarter-point cut paired with a hawkish communiqué — election-year fiscal stimulus and El Niño flagged as upside risks
Markets and FAAC allocations have surged since the subsidy was cut and the naira floated, but petrol has risen more than fourfold and households are still squeezed
Aurangzeb cuts salaried tax rates and scraps the surcharge while holding to the $7bn IMF programme's consolidation targets and a 17.6% higher revenue goal
The DFP 2026 cuts growth and dashes hopes of exiting the excessive-deficit procedure early
The president can't veto the budget, so he refers it — Tusk says it changes nothing
With debt near 132% of GDP and ~$13bn in undisclosed borrowing, Dakar resists an IMF-pushed restructuring after PM Sonko's ouster