FY26 연구개발비 12억 달러 추가, 예산조정법 우주 센서 72억·요격 시스템 56억 달러 투입
Defence & Arms
The industrial base, procurement, drones and nuclear forces.
state of play
European defence coordination hardened on June 25 in two moves: the E5 Berlin summit (Merz, Macron, Meloni, Starmer, Tusk) committed to 5% GDP spending and backed a NATO Hormuz naval mission, excluding Spain; and Macron and Meloni signed a Franco-Italian roadmap at Antibes covering SAMP/T air-defence production, nuclear energy and the "Bromo" satellite venture to rival Starlink. The Pentagon declared Golden Dome's first test a "full mission success", with an autonomous directed-energy system neutralising drones and cruise missiles, advancing the low-trillions programme headed to the NATO Ankara summit July 7-8.
China ran a coordinated June 22 capability demonstration: CGTN released the first public live-launch footage of the DF-17 hypersonic glide vehicle alongside the Liaoning carrier strike group's return, and four PLA Navy warships staged a rare navy-to-navy standoff at Scarborough Shoal, built while US attention was on the Gulf. The Ankara summit July 7-8 is the framework fight: the 5% GDP target is now pre-agreed by the E5; 0 European allies joined the Iran campaign; US commanders privately conditioning Article 5. Ukraine's transformation from arms importer to exporter, Gulf air-defence partnerships, adds a new axis. Watch Ankara's spending text, Golden Dome contract awards and the Antelope Reef runway construction.
tracking
Drones & autonomy
FPV drones3 activeUkraine's €58,000 'Lima' jammer claims 20,000+ Shaheds spoofed off course Loitering munitions1 activeUS scales up Switchblade buys: Army LASSO pick, $186M order, Marine fielding in June Naval drones3 contested-resultRussian EW 'blinds' a Ukrainian Magura drone, it detonates in a NATO port Counter-UAS2 activeArmy hands Anduril a $20B enterprise vehicle, opening with a counter-drone order Swarms3 activePentagon's 'Crucible' tests drone swarms as Swarm Forge chases full autonomy Shahed2 activeUkraine's €58,000 'Lima' jammer claims 20,000+ Shaheds spoofed off course
Air & missile defence
Patriot1 worsening402 Patriots in 16 days: the Iran war drains US interceptor stocks THAAD1 worseningTHAAD stocks gutted defending Israel, years to rebuild Iron Dome1 easingIsrael races to refill Iron Dome as Arkansas line ramps S-4001 activeRussia begins final S-400 deliveries to India, talks more Interceptor stocks5 worseningTHAAD stocks gutted defending Israel, years to rebuild
Nuclear forces
Sentinel ICBM1 stalemateSentinel ICBM, 81% over budget, still being restructured B-211 activeB-21 Raider enters combat testing far ahead of schedule China buildup4 worseningSatellite images show China hardening its nuclear silo fields New START3 pending-decisionRussia holds the line, for now, after New START Proliferation7 contested-resultIran's enriched uranium goes dark to inspectors after the war
Industrial base & output
Shells / 155mm — quiet Rheinmetall2 activeRheinmetall wins Bundeswehr order to backfill recovery vehicles sent to Ukraine Lockheed3 worseningTHAAD stocks gutted defending Israel, years to rebuild RTX2 activeRTX's Raytheon books $3.7bn Patriot interceptor deal for Ukraine, scales European output BAE1 worseningBAE's Glascoed 155mm plant slips as it doubles planned capacity Rostec1 activeRostec touts arms output 'the West can't dream of' as Russia scales war production NORINCO1 worseningNORINCO arms revenue drops 31% as China's weapons exports stall
Arms trade & procurement
EW, cyber & naval
latest
worsening 대우주 군비 경쟁 가속화, 중국·러시아 ASAT 모라토리엄 불참
35개국 이상이 파괴적 ASAT 실험 금지 서약, 미국 위성 재머 배치, 러시아 핵 ASAT 우려 지속
escalating 우크라이나 드론, 크림반도 야간 타격, 사키·흐바르데이스코예 공군기지 인근 피격
6월 25일 새벽 반도 곳곳에서 폭발음; 러시아 방공망, 복수 거점에서 가동
pending-decision 그로시, IAEA가 이란 시설에 복귀할 것이나 시기는 '필수적이지 않다'
IAEA 사무총장이 6월 17일 합의가 무엇을 요구하는지를 놓고 워싱턴과 테헤란이 엇갈린 신호를 보내는 가운데 사찰 시간표의 긴장을 완화
140kg 탄두를 탑재한 이 시스템이 실전 시험을 통과, 우크라이나 드론 전력을 국내 생산 모델 너머로 확대
메르츠, 마크롱, 멜로니, 스타머, 투스크가 앙카라 NATO 정상회의를 앞두고 베를린에서 만나 NATO의 유럽 축을 강화하며 마드리드를 5% 목표 문제로 배제
transition 독일, F126 호위함 사업 취소, 라인메탈에 해군 분야 타격
베를린, 문제 많은 180억 유로 대잠수함 함정 사업을 포기하고 TKMS의 MEKO A-200 8척으로 전환, 라인메탈 주가 급락·TKMS 급등
Van Hollen and Jacobs say the UAE is arming the RSF in contradiction of its assurances; resolutions of disapproval target Emirati weapons sales as Abu Dhabi denies all
파리와 로마가 SAMP/T 방공 시스템, 원자력 에너지, 스타링크에 대항하는 유럽 위성 사업에서 협력 심화
Le Monde and US lawmakers say Abu Dhabi opened covert cargo routes via Ethiopia and CAR to keep arming the RSF, contradicting assurances given to Washington
Megaconstellation batches and a surprise Long March 12B maiden flight push cadence to one launch every ~2.5 days
France, the UK, Italy and Poland join Germany to coordinate Ukraine, Iran and burden-sharing
active 펜타곤, 골든 돔 첫 시험 '완전 임무 성공' 선언
헤그세스, 지향성 에너지 시스템이 프로그램 최초 실전 시험에서 드론·순항 미사일 위협 다수를 자율적으로 탐지하고 격추했다고 밝혀
Rutte met Trump June 24 ahead of the July 7-8 Ankara summit; US anger at allies who refused to join the Iran campaign; 5% GDP defence target being pushed
A 5,000-tonne destroyer for nuclear-capable missiles, built, Seoul says, with Russian help, as Kim pivots from missiles to ships and submarines
active China releases first live DF-17 launch footage as Liaoning CSG returns from 40-day deployment
CGTN broadcast the first public test launch of the DF-17 hypersonic glide vehicle on June 22; the Liaoning carrier strike group concluded a 40-day South China Sea and Western Pacific campaign the same day
Modi inducts INS Dunagiri, Sanshodhak and Agray as a marker of self-reliant defence, and an answer to PLAN's Indian Ocean push
12 firms hold $3.2B in SBI work; a new $4.16B contract and Northrop-Apex push a 2028 integration target
The Liaoning carrier group concluded a 40-day deployment June 22; a rare PLA Navy-AFP Navy standoff at Scarborough Shoal June 20; China's CCG Regulation No. 3 took effect June 15
RM600m+ in direct losses after a cancelled NSM delivery; Anwar, on Russian TV, contrasts Oslo's reversal with Moscow 'honouring all commitments'
German troops to help fortify the Belarus and Russia borders as US engagement wavers
UK's 16x shell-output expansion runs months behind; capacity target doubled after a mid-2025 rethink
contested-result Iran's enriched uranium goes dark to inspectors after the war
Eight months on, the IAEA still cannot verify 440 kg of 60% HEU stored at Isfahan; Tehran says it has not resumed enrichment
The first leaders' summit under the 2021 Quirinal Treaty, focused on defence, space and energy
An operational test pilot flew the stealth bomber in June 2026 as the Air Force accelerates toward 2027 fielding at Ellsworth
Two defence resignations on 11 June reframe the collapse as policy-driven, not just poll panic
Berlin orders 23 Bergepanzer 3 A2 armoured recovery vehicles, ~€360m, replacing tow tanks handed to Kyiv
Networked EW, Lima, Pokrova, Bukovel, becomes a cheap layer against saturation drone strikes
America's $141B Minuteman replacement targets a first test launch in 2027, years late, with new-build silos driving the overrun
A US deal could permit Saudi enrichment while a new defence pact with Pakistan reopens old proliferation fears
A hijacked Magura V5 explodes at Constanța's Pier 78; three more from the swarm are still unaccounted for
North Korea reveals a fresh uranium-enrichment hall, likely a third site, as Kim says weapons-grade output has more than doubled in five years
The fourth regimental set started arriving in June 2026; Delhi sounds out a fresh batch even as Moscow's own war drains stocks
Singapore meeting streamlines the buy to second-hand boats and launches the first Pillar II undersea-drone project
AeroVironment's loitering munitions move from emergency Ukraine aid to a standing US organic-strike category
Saronic's Marauder went design-to-water in under a year; the Navy plans 36 MUSVs in FY26 under Replicator
Reuters finds 80+ launch pads, bunkers and octagon command sites near the Hami ICBM silos
Flight 12 proves the upper stage while the new booster flips and fails, investigation halts the program
The US fired well over 100 THAAD interceptors in the Iran war, draining up to a third of a costly, slow-to-replace arsenal
4,335 Geran-type drones launched in April; Alabuga output tops 5,500/month as jet variants outrun Ukraine's defences
After 500+ Iranian ballistic missiles, Tamir interceptor production shifts partly to a US plant supplying both armies
FBI/CISA advisory targets encrypted-messaging compromise as Fancy Bear exploits a patched-by-May vulnerability
Chemezov claims artillery-shell output up 10x, MLRS rounds 12x since 2022, combat aircraft doubled
Kyiv signs 10-year air-defence and drone partnerships with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar and plans 10 European export offices
pending-decision Russia holds the line, for now, after New START
Moscow could upload hundreds of warheads but, four months on, shows no large-scale breakout
Jam-proof tethered drones have killed at least ten Israeli soldiers since April; Israel has no electronic counter
Pappberger cites artillery shells up from 70,000 to 1.1m/yr; Europe's 155mm output now eclipses American lines
contested-result Golden Dome moves to contracts amid cost and feasibility doubts
Space Force picks 12 firms for space-based interceptors as estimates swing from $175B to $3.6T
SM-6 funding leaps to over $8.5B and a terminated SM-3 line is restored, but full depth won't return before 2028
German-funded GEM-T buy plus Dutch, Spanish and Romanian Patriot orders; new Schrobenhausen line ramps
Hegseth's AI memo names swarms a pace-setter; allied AWE26 links US, UK and Australian swarms live
Crewless USVs patrol, detect and box in an intruder with limited operator input, Beijing's answer to US naval autonomy
Ceiling raised and program extended to FY2032; PrSM production set to quadruple
A 10-year IDIQ folds 120+ prior contracts into one platform, a startup edging into prime territory
US holds 42% of exports; Germany overtakes China; Ukraine is the world's top arms importer
Operation Epic Fury burned through PAC-3 missiles faster than two years of production can replace
Beijing says the US and Russia must cut their far larger arsenals first before China sits at any table
Anti-corruption probes, contract delays and a Pakistan buying collapse drag Chinese sales to a 15-year low
The last treaty capping the two largest arsenals expired 5 February 2026 with no successor and no inspections
A 50km spool that cost $300 now runs ~$2,500, the same bend-insensitive fibre feeds both FPV cables and hyperscaler racks
Reusable interceptors and EW lead near-term buys; directed energy stays a 2030 story told as a 2026 one