China opens DRAM antitrust probe into Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron as CXMT rises
Beijing investigates memory pricing, fines could reach $2.5B, while domestic champion CXMT files for a $4.2B IPO and nears third-largest by wafer capacity
Summary
China has opened an antitrust probe, reportedly starting in June, into Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron over memory pricing, with one Korean brokerage estimating potential fines up to $2.5B across the three. The probe lands as the incumbents' year-long production discipline drives DRAM and NAND prices sharply higher, and as Beijing's domestic champion CXMT (ChangXin) files for a ~¥29.5B ($4.2B) Shanghai STAR Market IPO at a valuation up to ~$42B. CXMT reported ~$7.3B Q1 revenue (≈700% YoY), is heading toward ~350k wafer-starts/month, near Micron's ~385k, and its DDR5 has crossed into global consumer modules. The three incumbents still held >90% of Q4 DRAM shipments, but the floor is shifting.
By the numbers
- Up to $2.5B, estimated potential combined antitrust fine (SK Securities analyst).
90%, incumbents' (Samsung/SK Hynix/Micron) share of Q4 2025 DRAM shipments.
- $4.2B, CXMT's planned STAR Market IPO; valuation up to ~$42B.
- ~$7.3B, CXMT Q1 2026 revenue (≈700% YoY); ~70% operating margin.
- ~350k wspm, CXMT projected end-2026 wafer capacity (vs Micron ~385k).
Why it matters
The probe is leverage: a pricing investigation gives Beijing a counter to US chip controls and a shield for CXMT's scale-up. If CXMT reaches third-by-capacity and lists with state-backed capital, the three-player DRAM oligopoly that has underwritten the memory supercycle becomes a four-player market, with the new entrant inside China's tariff-and-subsidy perimeter.
What to watch
- Any formal finding or fine against the three incumbents.
- CXMT IPO pricing, listing date and post-IPO capacity guidance.
- Whether CXMT's DDR5 share in global consumer modules keeps climbing.
- Knock-on to HBM: CXMT's commodity push frees incumbent capacity for HBM, or floods DRAM.