Modi's bid to isolate Pakistan backfires as Islamabad courts Washington and Beijing
A decade after Modi vowed to quarantine Pakistan, Islamabad signs minerals and crypto deals with Trump's circle and an 'all-weather' upgrade with Xi — and India is left protesting from the sidelines
Summary
A decade after Narendra Modi pledged after the 2016 Uri attack to diplomatically isolate Pakistan, the policy has visibly inverted. Through 2025-26 Pakistan engaged Washington, Beijing, Tehran and Riyadh simultaneously: it signed critical-minerals deals with the Trump administration (United States EXIM Bank approved $1.3bn for the Reko Diq copper-gold project under "Project Vault"), a non-binding USD1-stablecoin MoU with the Trump-linked SC Financial Technologies, and on 25-26 May an "all-weather" partnership upgrade with China — Shehbaz Sharif meeting Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People. [[Al Jazeera]]'s 29 May "backfire" analysis crystallised the framing. Pakistan also acted as mediator in the US-Iran "Islamabad MoU" and nominated Donald Trump for a Nobel — credit Modi refused after the May 2025 ceasefire — leaving India protesting the joint statement's Kashmir and CPEC references. See Ce qu'ils ne disent pas, Qui décide.
The split
Pakistani outlets ([[The Express Tribune]], [[Pakistan Today]]) treat it as vindication — Islamabad restored to the table. [[Al Jazeera]] and Gulf papers stress structural drivers: mediation utility, minerals, remittances. Indian adversarial voices ([[The Wire]], Congress via [[The Tribune (India)]]) call it a "monumental failure" of Modi's foreign policy; establishment outlets ([[Organiser]]) reject the thesis, reading China's Kashmir line as Beijing's anxiety over India's rise. [[China]]'s [[CGTN]] omits any India angle entirely, framing only "iron brothers" and a shared future.
By the numbers
- $1.3bn — US EXIM financing approved (7 Feb 2026) for Reko Diq, the sole foreign deal in the $10bn "Project Vault" portfolio.
- $500m — pledged US private investment in Pakistani critical minerals (US Strategic Metals / FWO).
- ~$34bn — Pakistan remittances this fiscal year, led by Saudi Arabia ($7.93bn) and the UAE ($7bn).
- 75 — anniversary, in years, of China-Pakistan diplomatic relations marked by the May visit.
- 2016 — year of Modi's Uri-era pledge to isolate Pakistan "across the world".
- 2008 — Mumbai attacks, the last time India broadly succeeded in isolating Pakistan (per The Wire).
Why it matters
India's signature regional strategy — quarantine Pakistan, lean on a personal Trump rapport — has not delivered: Trump has visited China but not India, floated a trip to Pakistan, and let Islamabad broker his Iran diplomacy. The reversal exposes Narendra Modi at home (opposition attacks) and abroad (cooler US ties), while hard-wiring Pakistan deeper into both the US minerals supply chain and CPEC.
What to watch
- Whether the Reko Diq financing and "Project Vault" survive Balochistan's legal challenges and security risks.
- A Trump visit to Pakistan and/or India — the clearest signal of which capital Washington now prioritises.
- CPEC Phase 2 / Karakoram Highway and Gwadar progress, and any new India MEA pushback on the Kashmir clause.
- Whether the Congress critique gains traction against Modi's foreign-policy record beyond Modi's plan to nearly double the Lok Sabha is voted down.