Russia holds the line — for now — after New START
Moscow could upload hundreds of warheads but, four months on, shows no large-scale breakout
Summary
Four months after New START lapsed, Russia has not broken out. Russian officials said Moscow would keep observing the central limits — 1,550 warheads on 700 delivery vehicles — so long as Washington does. US assessments (CRS, May 2026) confirm no large-scale warhead increase. But the latent capacity remains: analysts estimate Russia could upload hundreds of non-deployed warheads, lifting its deployed force by up to ~60%. Speed varies by leg — bombers in hours, submarines in months, ICBM reconfiguration in years. The consensus read (War on the Rocks, Bulletin) is that Russian modernization mostly replaces Soviet-era systems rather than expanding numbers, leaving little near-term incentive to sprint — but the option is now legally unconstrained.
By the numbers
- ~60% — potential increase in deployed warheads if Russia fully uploads its reserve.
- 1,550 / 700 — the New START limits Moscow says it will still observe.
- Hours to years — upload time depending on bomber, submarine or ICBM.
- 4 months — since the treaty lapsed with no Russian breakout.
Why it matters
The danger is no longer a treaty cap but an opaque, reversible hedge. Without inspections, Washington must infer Russian intentions from sparse signals, and any US upload to match a perceived Russian move would be equally unverifiable — the classic action–reaction spiral arms control was built to dampen.
What to watch
- Satellite/intelligence signs of warhead loading at bomber or ICBM bases.
- Any US decision to upload first, citing the China threat.
- Russian statements tying restraint to US missile-defence (Golden Dome) moves.