Strait of Hormuz blockage sends global urea and ammonia prices to four-year highs

Summary

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which began on 28 February 2026 following US and Israeli strikes on Iranian territory, triggered an immediate shock to global Ammonia and urea markets. The Gulf region produces approximately half the world's urea and 30% of ammonia; roughly one-third of all globally traded fertilizer passes through the strait. With that maritime corridor blocked, urea prices surged 53.7% in a single month to USD 725.6 per tonne in March 2026, the highest level in four years. The World Bank's April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook cited the disruption as the driver of the largest global energy and commodity price surge in four years. By June, the World Bank warned that if shipping disruptions persist through the second half of 2026, global fertilizer prices could rise by more than 30% for the full year, with nitrogen fertilizers facing the steepest increases because of the Gulf's dominant role in ammonia production and LNG exports used as feedstock.

The split

Agricultural markets coverage was global but uneven. North American and European farm media focused on input-cost pass-through to the 2026 planting season, with US analysts from the University of Illinois calculating exposure for American corn and wheat producers. South Asian coverage, particularly in India and Pakistan, focused on import risks given their reliance on Gulf-sourced urea. African agricultural press covered potential knock-on food price effects in countries where fertilizer is a bottleneck to production. The World Economic Forum framed the disruption as a test case for food-system resilience given that no realistic alternative supply routes for Gulf ammonia exist. Geopolitical coverage tracked whether Iran would lift the blockade as part of ceasefire negotiations.

By the numbers

• 53.7%, month-on-month urea price increase in March 2026
• USD 725.6/tonne, urea price in March 2026 (four-year high)
• ~50%, the Gulf's share of global urea production
• ~30%, the Gulf's share of global ammonia production
• 1/3 of globally traded fertilizer normally transits the Strait of Hormuz
• 30%+, World Bank's projected full-year fertilizer price increase if disruption persists
• 28 February 2026, date Iran closed the strait to commercial shipping

Why it matters

Global food production depends heavily on nitrogen fertilizer derived from Ammonia, and the Gulf's concentration of production creates a structural vulnerability when Hormuz is blocked. A 30-50% fertilizer price increase, sustained through a full growing season, passes through to food prices for staples including wheat, maize and rice, with the heaviest impact on import-dependent countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. The 2026 disruption also accelerates debate about fertilizer supply-chain diversification and strategic reserves, which most countries do not maintain.

What to watch

• Whether Iran and the US reach an agreement that reopens the strait before the Northern Hemisphere autumn planting window
• How South Asian governments respond to urea price shocks and whether subsidies buffer or expose fiscal deficits
• USDA and FAO food price index updates tracking pass-through into global staple costs
• Investment announcements for non-Gulf Ammonia production capacity in response to the supply shock