‹ rbtfl.

India's 2026 monsoon records driest June in 146 years, kharif at risk

A 46% June rainfall deficit and El Nino-driven IMD forecast of 90% of long-period average has cotton and oilseed farmers in Maharashtra and Gujarat holding back planting

식량·날씨· worsening 삶은 어떻게 바뀌는가·조용한 변화 ·13 시각 · ·rbtfl 업데이트 2026년 6월 27일

Summary

The 2026 southwest monsoon reached Kerala on June 4, three days late, and then stalled through most of June, producing the driest June in 146 years of recorded Indian weather. Between June 4 and June 22, the country received only 53.1 mm of rain against a long-period average of 97.6 mm, a 46% deficit. Maharashtra ran 85% below normal, Gujarat 84%, and Madhya Pradesh 58%. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had already revised its seasonal forecast on May 29 to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a 60% probability of an outright deficient season, driven by a strengthening El Nino that is expected to intensify into Northern Hemisphere winter, the first below-normal IMD forecast in 11 years. Kharif sowing recovered partially by late June, reaching 11.99 million hectares by June 19 (slightly ahead of 2025 pace), with Rice up sharply in eastern India and pulses ahead; cotton collapsed 28% year-on-year as farmers in the two worst-deficit states held back planting. Narendra Modi's government faces pressure to pre-empt food inflation ahead of the results of a deficient South Asia Monsoon.

The split

Indian business media (BusinessToday, Outlook Business) lead with the historic record and consumer food-price risk. Down To Earth and Rural Voice focus on crop-by-crop sowing data and the divergence between rain-fed western-India crops (cotton, oilseeds) and eastern-India rice, which is benefiting from canal irrigation and is still on target. The IMD's revision from 92% to 90% of LPA looks modest in percentage terms, but 90% crosses the threshold used for official "below-normal" classification, giving it outsized policy weight. International coverage remains sparse; the story is largely an Indian domestic narrative so far.

By the numbers

  • 46%, India's June rainfall deficit (June 4-22, 2026) against a 97.6 mm long-period average.
  • 85%, Maharashtra's June rainfall shortfall.
  • 84%, Gujarat's June rainfall shortfall.
  • 58%, Madhya Pradesh's June rainfall shortfall.
  • 60%, IMD-assigned probability of a deficient season for June-September 2026 (60% probability of below 90% LPA).
  • 90%, of LPA, IMD revised seasonal forecast (down from 92% issued in April).
  • 11.99 million hectares, total kharif sowing area by June 19 (vs. 11.79 million ha same period 2025).
  • 28%, year-on-year fall in cotton sowing area by June 5, driven by Maharashtra and Gujarat holdback.

Why it matters

India's monsoon drives roughly 60% of its farmland through rain-fed kharif crops: Rice, cotton, soybean, oilseeds, and pulses. A deficient season raises the risk of domestic food-price pressure, lower rural incomes, and stress on the Wheat and rice buffer stocks the government has been building. Cotton failures in Maharashtra are historically associated with farmer debt distress. Combined with high Palm Oil import costs and an already stretched global fertilizer market, a weak oilseed crop would worsen India's edible-oil import bill. For global markets, India's kharif rice area is still tracking ahead, partly cushioning concern for the 2026-27 supply year.

What to watch

  • July and August rainfall accumulation: whether a monsoon revival closes the June deficit or the shortfall deepens.
  • Cotton and soybean sowing area through July, the key risk-crop signal for Maharashtra and Vidarbha.
  • FCI rice and Wheat destocking pace, in case the government needs to release buffer grain to cap domestic prices.
  • Whether IMD upgrades or downgrades the seasonal forecast on its next revision.