Europe enters refill season with gas storage 9 points behind last year
TTF holds near €42-49/MWh through June as injection lags the five-year norm and the Iran war premium only partly unwinds
Summary
European TTF front-month gas traded between roughly €42 and €49/MWh through June 2026, peaking near €49.8 on 8 June before easing toward €42 after the 17 June US-Iran framework began deflating the war premium that had built since the Hormuz disruption of late February. The structural worry is storage. EU inventories sat around 45.6% full, about 9 points below the same date in 2025 and ~14% under the five-year average; Germany's sites were near a third full in early June. Net June injections continue to lag seasonal norms, leaving the bloc to refill from a low base into winter while Russian pipeline supply shrinks toward the 2028 phase-out. Prices remain ~40% above a year earlier.
By the numbers
- €49.8/MWh, TTF one-month peak, 8 June 2026.
- ~€42/MWh, level after the 17 June US-Iran framework cut the war premium.
- 45.6%, EU storage fill, vs 54.4% a year earlier (~9 points lower).
- ~14%, gap below the five-year-average storage level.
- ~33%, German storage fill in early June; ~40% above year-ago price.
Why it matters
Europe is refilling for winter from its lowest base in years while leaning harder on imported LNG and a dwindling Russian pipeline trickle. A cold snap, an LNG outage, or a fresh Middle East shock would land on thin inventories, the price cushion that absorbed past winters is gone.
What to watch
- Whether weekly net injections close the gap to the five-year band before autumn.
- LNG cargo competition with Asian buyers as JKM and TTF converge.
- Any escalation around Hormuz re-inflating the risk premium.