Al-Shabaab claws back the Shabelle gains as AUSSOM hemorrhages support

Summary

Al Shabaab has reversed the gains Somalia's government made in its 2022-23 offensive, retaking towns across Middle and Lower Shabelle and parts of Hiiraan, with its reach now extending toward Mogadishu. The al-Qaeda affiliate captured Moqokori (Hiraan) and contested Wargaadhi (Middle Shabelle) earlier in 2026. Mogadishu leans heavily on the African Union mission, which the CTC and Crisis Group say is under strength and losing donor support amid Somali political interference. US Africa Command continued strikes — one near Welmaro on 19 June — and Somali operations killed 28 militants in Hiran and Middle Shabelle in June, including commander Abdirahman Abdi Mudallib. But analysts warn the strategic calculus is shifting toward al-Shabaab seizing the capital.

By the numbers

• 28 — al-Shabaab fighters killed in June 2026 Hiran/Middle Shabelle operations.
• 19 June 2026 — AFRICOM strike near Welmaro, ~103km north of Kismayo.
• 2022-23 — the government offensive al-Shabaab has now largely reversed.
• July 2025 — al-Shabaab takes Moqokori after a two-month campaign.
• AUSSOM — under-strength and hemorrhaging donor funding.

Why it matters

A movement retaking territory it lost three years ago, with its reach lapping at the capital, signals the federal project's reliance on foreign troops and US airpower is failing to hold ground. An AUSSOM losing funding while Mogadishu feuds internally raises the prospect — flagged by the Africa Center — of Somalia drifting toward a jihadist state.

What to watch

• AUSSOM's funding and troop strength as donors waver.
• Whether al-Shabaab can threaten Mogadishu's outskirts directly.
• US strike tempo under AFRICOM and any federal ground counteroffensive.
• Federal-state political fragmentation that the group exploits.