India sets record for Russian crude imports in June at 2.35 million bpd as US sanctions waiver lapses unrenewed

Summary

India is on track to import 2.35 million barrels per day of Russian crude in June 2026, topping the prior record of 2.2 million bpd set in May 2023 and raising Russia's share of Indian oil imports to 53.5%. The surge is driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure since late February 2026: roughly 40% of India's crude normally transits the strait, and Iraq, ordinarily India's second-largest supplier, has not exported to India for approximately four months. Russian crude is available at a $4-$5 per barrel discount versus Brent. The US sanctions waiver on Russian seaborne oil sales lapsed on June 17 without renewal, but Indian refiners have shown no sign of changing purchasing patterns.

The split

Indian business and energy press frame the record imports as economically rational and geopolitically necessary: with Gulf supply disrupted, refiners had no practical alternative at scale other than Russian barrels. The US and European perspective, filtered through sanctions and secondary-market enforcement mechanisms, treats the lapse of the waiver as a pressure point, though the Biden and Trump administrations have both shown reluctance to sanction Indian state-oil companies directly given the bilateral relationship. Russian state media is using the India import data as evidence that Western sanctions have failed to isolate Moscow from major markets.

By the numbers

• 2.35 million bpd, estimated Indian crude imports from Russia in June 2026 (prior record: 2.2 million bpd, May 2023)
• 53.5%, Russia's share of Indian crude imports in June 2026
• June 17, date on which the US sanctions waiver on Russian seaborne oil lapsed without renewal
• ~4 months, duration of Iraq's effective halt of crude exports to India following the Hormuz closure
• $4-$5 per barrel, Russian crude discount versus Brent
• 40%, share of Indian crude imports that normally transits the Strait of Hormuz

Why it matters

India's record Russian oil intake directly undermines the Western sanctions architecture: the world's third-largest oil importer is absorbing Russian barrels at a pace that exceeds the price cap's deterrent effect. For Russia, Indian demand is helping offset the revenue losses from lower Brent prices and reduced European sales. For India, the arrangement delivers cheap energy but leaves New Delhi increasingly exposed to US secondary-sanctions risk at a moment when the sanctions waiver providing explicit cover has expired.

What to watch

• Whether the US Treasury takes enforcement action against Indian refiners or tanker operators following the waiver lapse
• Whether India seeks a new waiver or a bilateral carve-out in the context of US-India trade negotiations
• Iraq's timeline to resume exports to India via alternative routes as Hormuz negotiations continue
• Whether the July OPEC+ meeting (July 5) adjusts Russian output targets in response to the sustained Indian demand