‹ rbtfl.
⋯
LeadersConflictsDefenceAIEnergySpaceStartupsTradeMineralsShippingMoneyDebtFood all trackers ▸

DRC's 96,600-tonne cobalt quota forces Glencore to pivot and drives prices up 160%

Kinshasa replaced its 2025 export ban with strict annual caps; cobalt hit $57,320/t, but artisanal miners largely escape the ceiling

Minerals·resource-nationalism· active Whose Money·The Quiet Shift ·7 takes · ·rbtfl upd Jun 25, 2026

Summary

The Democratic Republic of Congo replaced its 2025 cobalt export ban with binding annual quotas of 96,600 tonnes for 2026 and 2027, covering all large-scale formal operators. Kinshasa designed the cap to drain the multi-year surplus that had pushed cobalt below $15/lb; prices have since rallied roughly 160% to $57,320/t ($26/lb) as of mid-2026. Glencore, the largest cobalt producer in the DRC, produced just 5,800t in Q1 2026, down 39% year on year, deferring final processing to avoid carrying costs while quotas prevent near-term sales. Glencore's combined 2026 allocation is 22,800t: 16,100t at Kamoto Copper Company and 6,700t at Mutanda. S&P Global projects the cap could tip the market into near-term deficit and lift the DRC's cobalt export value roughly 24% in 2027 versus 2024.

The split

Glencore frames the quotas as transitional, expecting exports to normalise against allocations by year-end. Semafor and independent analysts point to a structural inequity: the cap constrains formal large-scale producers bound by traceability rules but does almost nothing to restrain the vast artisanal and small-scale mining sector, which supplies a significant share of DRC cobalt, particularly from eastern Katanga. Ecofin Agency reads the strategy as a genuine resource-value play, pointing to the 2027 export-value windfall. Critics note the asymmetry: legitimate operators bear the full production cost of the cap while informal volumes continue to flow through opaque channels, blunting the price signal and undermining the DRC's stated rationale.

By the numbers

  • 96,600t, DRC national cobalt export cap for both 2026 and 2027.
  • 22,800t, Glencore's combined 2026 allocation across KCC (16,100t) and Mutanda (6,700t).
  • 5,800t, Glencore Q1 2026 cobalt production (down 39% year on year).
  • ~$57,320/t ($26/lb), cobalt metal price mid-2026 (up roughly 160% from February 2025).
  • ~24%, projected increase in DRC cobalt export value in 2027 vs 2024 under the quota regime, per S&P Global.
  • ~70%, share of global cobalt production originating in the DRC.

Why it matters

Cobalt is a critical cathode input for NMC batteries in EVs and grid storage; the DRC supplies roughly 70% of global output, and no credible substitute supply base exists at scale. The quota regime is the first time Kinshasa has wielded export volume as a systematic price lever rather than simply banning raw ore, a model Indonesia pioneered for Nickel and that other African commodity exporters are watching. If the cap holds through 2027, it validates resource nationalism applied to refined battery metals. The artisanal-mining loophole is the primary vulnerability: volume leaking through opaque channels rebuilds the surplus while formal producers absorb all the cost. For Western Defence Industry and EV supply chains, the price rally raises cathode costs and adds urgency to lithium and cobalt recycling programs.

What to watch

  • Whether Kinshasa tightens enforcement against artisanal-sector leakage in H2 2026.
  • Whether the quota is renewed, tightened or liberalised for 2028 once the 2027 tranche is set.
  • Glencore's decision on when to restart deferred final cobalt processing at Kamoto and Mutanda.
  • Cobalt recycling capacity ramp at Glencore-acquired Li-Cycle and Redwood Materials, and whether second-life volumes displace mined supply.