independent UK economic research institute; primary source for the unfunded-portion critique
By lens · 1 takes across the edition
Institute for Fiscal Studies · United Kingdom · UK commits nearly £300 billion to defence over four years, targeting 2.7% of GDP by 2028 and 3.5% by 2035
IFS initial response confirmed the £3.8 billion annual increase above planned baselines and identified that roughly a third, averaging £1.2 billion per year, has no identified funding source, with a decision deferred to the autumn Budget. A further £0.9 billion per year is described only as coming from 'asset sales and Treasury support,' leaving about half the annual increase with unclear or deferred funding. IFS also estimated that reaching 3.5% of GDP by 2035 will require an additional ~£25 billion per year in today's terms beyond the newly announced plans.
“The government has not set out how it will pay for around a third of this increase, an average of £1.2 billion each year.”