US-backed Orion CMC agreed to buy 40% of Glencore's DRC copper-cobalt assets for $9bn as Glencore-Rio merger talks collapsed

Summary

Glencore signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding in February 2026 for the Orion Critical Mineral Consortium, a US-backed vehicle, to acquire a 40% strategic stake in Mutanda Mining and Kamoto Copper Company (KCC), the DRC's two largest cobalt-copper producers, at a combined enterprise value of approximately $9 billion. The deal would give American interests a direct foothold in assets that together accounted for a substantial share of global Cobalt supply in 2025, reducing Chinese commercial dominance of DRC output. The same month, merger talks between Glencore and Rio Tinto collapsed after six weeks of negotiations over valuation, in particular the treatment of Glencore's large coal portfolio. UK Takeover Panel rules prevent formal re-engagement until August 2026. In June, Glencore separately completed the sale of its Kidd copper-zinc mine in Timmins, Ontario to Discovery Silver, shedding a mature Canadian asset while reaffirming the DRC as its core copper-cobalt platform.

The split

Washington frames the Orion deal as supply-chain security, reducing Chinese commercial exposure in DRC cobalt and copper through an ownership stake in the two largest individual producing sites. Glencore presents it as unlocking capital while retaining operational control. DRC government analysts note that ARECOMS, the cobalt quota authority, remains the arbiter of export volumes regardless of ownership, limiting any Western offtake certainty under the 96,600-tonne 2026 cobalt quota. On the merger, Rio Tinto's coal-free positioning makes Glencore's coal assets structurally problematic; any deal requires a mechanism to ring-fence or spin off coal before a combination is politically viable. The Takeover Panel cooling-off period creates a forced pause that may reset valuations but does not resolve the fundamental coal disagreement.

By the numbers

• $9 billion, combined enterprise value of Mutanda Mining and KCC implied by the Orion stake.
• 40%, Orion CMC's proposed stake in both DRC assets.
• $204-260 billion, reported valuation range for the Glencore-Rio Tinto combination.
• August 2026, earliest date formal merger talks can restart under Takeover Panel rules.
• $75 million, maximum reimbursable costs Glencore receives from the Kidd mine sale.
• 1% NSR royalty, retained by Glencore on future Kidd production.

Why it matters

Glencore's DRC assets are the largest Western-operated source of cobalt outside Chinese-controlled supply chains. The Orion deal is the most direct US government-adjacent attempt to secure Western stakes in DRC production before Chinese buyers consolidate dominance. Because DRC export quotas cap total volumes regardless of who owns the mines, the deal's strategic value depends on whether American ownership translates into quota allocation or exemptions from ARECOMS. The collapsed Rio-Glencore merger illustrates a recurring constraint on mining consolidation: coal-transition politics create an effective veto for any merger with a climate-aligned counterparty. If August 2026 talks resume, the same economics apply and coal treatment will again determine the outcome.

What to watch

• Whether Orion CMC and Glencore convert the MoU into a binding agreement and secure DRC regulatory clearance.
• Glencore-Rio Tinto: whether August 2026 restarts talks and what coal demerger structure could unlock the deal.
• ARECOMS cobalt quota allocation for 2027 and whether US-owned stakes receive preferential export access.
• Further Glencore divestments of non-core copper or zinc assets following the Kidd sale.