India on track for record 24 million tonne rice export year after lifting 2023 bans

Summary

After a 14-month ban on non-basmati white rice exports and a separate ban on broken rice, India progressively dismantled its export restriction regime between September 2024 and March 2025. The non-basmati white rice ban (imposed July 2023) was replaced by a $490-per-tonne minimum export price in September 2024, then the MEP was eliminated in October 2024 and parboiled rice export duties were removed. The broken rice ban, in place since August 2022, was lifted on March 7, 2025, via DGFT Notification 61/2024-25. From May 1, 2025, the government reimposed a 20% export duty on parboiled and milled rice as a partial retightening. USDA forecasts India's total Rice exports for FY2025-26 at 24 million tonnes, a record, driven by record production of 143 million tonnes, competitive prices, and deliberate government stock liquidation. Global rice export prices fell 35% from their 2023-24 peaks as Indian supply returned. Pakistan's rice exports fell 46% in Q1 FY2025-26, the most direct victim of India's competitive re-entry. The 2026 kharif monsoon deficit raises a supply-side risk to the FY2026-27 rice crop, but FCI's large buffer stocks provide a cushion for domestic prices.

The split

India's own trade data (DGFT, APEDA, USDA New Delhi office) show a clean arc of liberalisation and now record exports. IFPRI and FAO focus on the global food security damage caused by the 2023 ban, particularly in West Africa and South Asia, framing India's export controls as a precedent-setting unilateral restriction that the WTO's disciplines failed to prevent. Vietnam and Thailand are watching India's dominance uneasily: India's 24-million-tonne forecast dwarfs Thailand's 7-8 million tonnes and Vietnam's 8-9 million tonnes combined. Indonesia's reduced spot imports, driven by its own stock-building program, reduce demand from a key buyer.

By the numbers

• 24 million tonnes, USDA forecast for India's FY2025-26 rice exports (record).
• 143 million tonnes, India's FY2025-26 rice production forecast.
• 35%, fall in global rice export prices from 2023-24 peak levels after India's liberalisation.
• 46%, fall in Pakistan's rice export volume in Q1 FY2025-26 after India's competitive re-entry.
• $490 per tonne, original MEP for non-basmati white rice exports (September 2024), since eliminated.
• 20%, export duty reimposed on parboiled and milled rice from May 1, 2025.
• 12 million tonnes, approximate basmati rice production in India FY2025-26 at $5.8 billion in export value.

Why it matters

India's rice export policy, when it moves, moves global food prices. The 2023 ban raised rice costs for 140 million people in rice-importing countries across Africa and Asia. The 2024-25 liberalisation reversed that, but the partial parboiled duty (20%) still suppresses India's competitiveness in an important product category, and the weakest kharif in 146 years creates genuine upside risk to domestic prices in FY2026-27, potentially prompting the next policy tightening.

What to watch

• Whether the 20% parboiled rice export duty is removed or raised as the 2026 kharif season unfolds.
• FY2025-26 final export volumes vs the 24 million tonne forecast (final data due September 2026).
• Global rice benchmark prices (Thai 5% broken rice) as a signal of whether Indian supply is sustaining the price suppression.
• FCI's domestic stock levels: if they fall below trigger levels on a weak kharif harvest, a new export restriction is likely.