Brent slides under $74 as Hormuz tankers return, and the EIA's $105 wartime call is overtaken
The benchmark hits its lowest since February as shipping recovers; the 9 June STEO had Brent averaging $105 in June–July on a closed strait, a forecast the 17 June ceasefire upended in days
Summary
Brent fell below $74/bbl, its lowest since February, as tankers resumed transiting the Strait of Hormuz under IMO safety guarantees and the US-Iran framework took hold, a roughly 40% collapse from the wartime peak. The speed embarrassed the forecasters: the EIA's 9 June outlook had Brent averaging $105 in June–July on the assumption Hormuz stayed closed and Middle East output stayed cut by 11m+ bpd, with a $95 2026 annual average. The 17 June ceasefire voided that base case within days. The market is now pricing returning Gulf barrels, an OPEC+ unwind and softer demand against still-low OECD inventories, the lowest since 2003, which puts a floor under the slide.
By the numbers
- <$74/bbl, Brent, the lowest since February 2026.
- ~40%, fall from the 2026 wartime peak.
- $105, EIA's 9 June June–July Brent forecast (closed-Hormuz base case), now overtaken.
- $95 / $79, EIA Brent annual averages for 2026 / 2027; OECD stocks lowest since 2003.
Why it matters
The episode shows how a single chokepoint reopening can erase a war premium faster than official models update, and how thin the buffer is underneath. Low OECD inventories and the stalled US shale supply response mean the floor is higher than a simple demand read suggests, even as Gulf and Russian budgets absorb the price drop.
What to watch
- Where Brent settles once Gulf flows fully normalise and OPEC+ adds barrels.
- The EIA's next STEO revision off the closed-Hormuz base case.
- OECD inventory rebuilds against the 6–8m bpd 2Q–3Q draws.