IOM survey finds Western Balkans migration route remains active with 763 migrants interviewed across six countries in early 2026, with Afghanistan and Syria as the leading origin countries

Summary

IOM's Displacement Tracking Matrix published a March 2026 survey of 763 migrants interviewed at reception and transit points across six Western Balkans countries: Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, and Bulgaria. Afghans (34%) and Syrians (22%) were the leading origin nationalities, with smaller shares from Somalia, Pakistan, and Morocco. 68% named Germany, France, or another Northern European EU member state as their intended destination. 42% described protection-related drivers, including conflict, persecution, or targeted violence, as the primary reason for departure, compared to 58% citing primarily economic motives. The average journey time from origin country to the Balkans was 18.3 months, indicating extended periods of transit or stuck migration rather than rapid passage through the region. The survey was conducted against a backdrop of overall Western Balkans route arrivals to the EU that were more than 40% below peak 2021-2022 levels.

The split

EU institutions and Western Balkan governments argued that the combination of EU-funded border management improvements, bilateral readmission agreements, and stricter visa policies for origin transit countries had succeeded in reducing irregular arrivals on the route. Human rights organisations including UNHCR, ECRE, and the Border Violence Monitoring Network documented an alternative explanation: that much of the recorded decline in formal arrivals reflected an increase in informal pushbacks to Serbia, Bosnia, or North Macedonia from Croatia and Bulgaria, which are EU member states, rather than a genuine reduction in crossing attempts. The IOM survey's finding that 42% of those in the Balkans had protection-related rather than purely economic motivations complicated the political framing of the route as primarily economic migration amenable to deterrence.

By the numbers

• 763: migrants surveyed by IOM across 6 Western Balkans countries, March 2026
• 34%: Afghan nationals (leading origin nationality)
• 22%: Syrian nationals (second origin nationality)
• 68%: aiming for Germany, France, or other Northern European EU members
• 42%: citing protection needs (conflict, persecution, targeted violence) as primary driver
• 18.3 months: average journey time from origin country to the Balkans
• 40%+: decline in Western Balkans route EU irregular arrivals vs 2021-2022 peak

Why it matters

The Western Balkan Route connects the Middle East, Central Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa to the European Union's external border, and its persistence despite years of EU investment in deterrence reflects the absence of legal pathways for the predominant nationalities on the route: Afghans since the 2021 Taliban takeover and Syrians have minimal access to safe and legal migration channels to EU countries. The route's continued activity at reduced but non-zero levels also illustrates the limits of border management as a migration governance tool when the push factors at origin remain active.

What to watch

• Whether the EU's new Asylum and Migration Pact, implemented from June 2024, materially changes processing times or conditions at EU border crossing points from the Balkans
• Whether Afghanistan's continued humanitarian crisis sustains Afghan migration flow at current levels through 2026
• Whether Serbia or Bosnia and Herzegovina receive EU accession-track commitments that alter the political calculus around hosting transit populations
• Frontex Q2-Q3 2026 data on Western Balkans route detection numbers