Hours after Washington's June 26 retaliation strikes on Iran's missile and radar sites, the IRGC targeted the 5th Fleet base in Manama and a tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the US-Iran MoU to the edge of collapse
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At 08:00 UTC on June 27, an unidentified projectile hit the 300,866-tonne crude carrier Kiku, laden with 2 million barrels of oil; the crew escaped injury but the bridge sustained damage, and the UK maritime agency upgraded the waterway's threat rating within hours
The UN's maritime agency counted roughly 80 explosives in the Traffic Separation Scheme; two alternative corridors have formed, one US-coordinated along Oman's coast, one Iran-controlled closer to the Iranian shore
A projectile hit the Ever Lovely's bridge at 14:10 UTC on June 25; US Central Command struck Iranian missile and radar sites in retaliation on June 26, Trump called it a "foolish violation" of the ceasefire MoU, and the IRGC denied involvement
The International Maritime Organization halted plans to evacuate 11,000 stranded sailors from the Strait of Hormuz after the M/V Ever Lovely was hit while following the IMO's southern route; Iran explicitly declared the corridor unauthorized and warned it would target non-compliant ships
Burgenstock talks June 22 conclude with a 60-day road map, Hormuz deconfliction cell and IAEA-inspectors-back agreement; Trump threatens US tolls if no final deal by August 22
Saudi Ras Tanura resumes tanker loadings for the first time since March; Brent is now 37% below its war peak
A day after Oman and the IMO opened a fee-free transit route, Iran's Guards call it 'unacceptable' and demand mandatory coordination on Channel 16
Crude had fallen 40% from its wartime peak by June 25, then a projectile hit an Evergreen container ship in Hormuz and war-risk premiums snapped back
The three-day mission to UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain surfaced a private fear: that Washington's rapprochement with Tehran could normalise a rival the Gulf has spent decades containing
The US Secretary of State concluded visits to UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain defending the US-Iran MoU; Gulf partners offered public solidarity while privately questioning enforcement
Brent peaked near $118 in March; post-ceasefire normalisation has it at $75.57 by June 24, but a 500-vessel queue and the Qatar LNG explosion keep markets unsettled
With Hormuz restricted and the Red Sea still avoided, carriers reroute via the Cape, lifting spot rates 29-129% on key lanes
General License X resumes Iranian crude exports with banking, insurance and shipping cover after the Hormuz reopening
A 21 June fire at Ras Laffan's Barzan treatment plant left 13 dead, 66 hurt, 18 missing; weekly throughput fell to a fifth of normal
With a US–Iran framework deal, Berlin readies the Bundeswehr, under three conditions
Emboldened by its wartime shipping blockade, Tehran signals it could charge tech firms tolls, or disrupt traffic, on cables that feed the Gulf's AI boom
Kyiv signs 10-year air-defence and drone partnerships with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar and plans 10 European export offices