Russian crude

Saudi Ras Tanura resumes tanker loadings for the first time since March; Brent is now 37% below its war peak

Drone strikes on refineries trigger the worst fuel shortage on the Black Sea peninsula since 2014; the Kremlin and independent press describe it in opposite terms

January's automatic mechanism keeps the cap 15% under a trailing Urals average; with the grade already below $40 at points, the cap now chases the market down rather than setting it

Novak floats halting diesel exports and importing gasoline after strikes knock out 40% of Moscow's fuel supply; product exports down ~15%

With Urals near $40 the deficit forecast balloons toward ~3% of GDP or worse; one estimate sees a $25–30bn revenue shortfall, the lowest monthly oil tax take since 2022