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Rupee at 94 against the dollar, RBI rolls out FCNR-B scheme and $10bn swap to stem the slide

India's currency has depreciated 10% in twelve months; the central bank is defending with reserves, a swap line and subsidised hedging for inbound deposits

资金· active 谁的钱·他们没说的 ·10 视角 · ·rbtfl 更新 2026年6月27日

Summary

The Indian rupee traded at 94.3080 per US dollar on June 26, 2026, a 10.31% depreciation over twelve months and a 7.04% slide year-to-date. The RBI launched a three-part currency defence package on June 5 alongside the rate hold: a Foreign Currency Non-Resident Bank (FCNR-B) deposit scheme in which the RBI bears the full foreign-exchange hedging cost for banks raising three-to-five year deposits, expected to attract $20 billion in NRI inflows; a $10 billion dollar-rupee swap to inject domestic liquidity; and an expansion of the Fully Accessible Route (FAR) for government securities to include all new 15-, 30- and 40-year issuances. On June 23, the RBI further allowed banks to lend against FCNR-B deposits. Foreign-exchange reserves stood at $672.587 billion as of June 19, recovering from a $681.6 billion low on June 6, but well below the March 2026 peak of $728.5 billion. Falling crude prices offered late-June relief: Brent retreated from $111-121 per barrel in early June toward $69-77, reducing the oil-import bill that drives India's current account.

The split

Indian press anchors on the RBI's arsenal and the temporary relief from lower oil prices. Bloomberg and MUFG frame this as a structural defence against a multiyear dollar-strength cycle: FPI equity outflows of $17-18 billion in 2026, coupled with US tariffs of 26-50% on Indian goods, have created persistent current-account pressure the FCNR-B scheme partially offsets. The rupee's 10% twelve-month slide is steeper than peer EM currencies in Asia, and the reserves drawdown of $56 billion from peak warrants attention that most domestic coverage does not give it.

By the numbers

  • 94.3080, USD/INR spot rate (June 26, 2026)
  • 10.31%, twelve-month rupee depreciation vs dollar
  • 7.04%, year-to-date 2026 depreciation
  • $672.587bn, forex reserves (week ended June 19); down from $728.5bn peak in March 2026
  • $107.9bn, gold component of reserves (up $4.1bn in latest week on revaluation)
  • $20bn, targeted FCNR-B inflow from the hedging-cost scheme (June 8 to September 30, 2026)
  • $10bn, dollar-rupee swap injected June 2026
  • $17-18bn, estimated FPI equity outflows from India in calendar 2026

Why it matters

India imports 88% of its crude-oil needs, so rupee depreciation directly imports inflation, threatening the RBI's 4% CPI mandate and eroding purchasing power in a country where fuel has outsized CPI weight. The reserves drawdown is the real indicator to watch: at current burn rates, the $56 billion decline from March to June signals the RBI has been actively defending, not passively watching. Modi's government faces a political cost if food and fuel prices converge upward in an El Niño monsoon year.

What to watch

  • Whether FCNR-B deposits flow in at the $20 billion pace targeted (July-September window)
  • Current account and trade data for June-August: does Brent stabilisation cut the import bill?
  • Net forward book: whether RBI is rebuilding long-dollar positions or remains short
  • FPI equity flows reversing if global risk appetite returns to EM