commodity pricing
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Reports the November 2025 MOFCOM suspension of the US-specific export ban on gallium, germanium, and antimony until November 27, 2026, as part of US-China trade talks. Notes the global licensing regime remains unchanged, creating long lead times and unpredictable spot availability; Western buyers describe the truce as operationally meaningless for procurement planning.
“China's trade-truce suspension of the US gallium ban is operationally meaningless: global licensing delays mean reliable Western supply has not returned.”
Documents US ferro-vanadium reaching $51,650 per metric tonne unit in March 2026, driven by simultaneous demand from the VRFB storage sector and the steel microalloying industry, where vanadium is used to strengthen rebar. Notes that Chinese domestic vanadium prices diverged from Western prices by approximately 30%, as China's VRFB expansion absorbed domestic production that previously supplied export markets. Supply from South Africa (VR8) and Brazil (Largo) is ramping slowly.
“US ferro-vanadium reached $51,650/MTU in March 2026 as VRFB storage and steel rebar demand combined with reduced Chinese export availability, creating a 30% China-West price gap.”