Kalshi doubles to $22bn in five months and targets $40bn as prediction markets hit mainstream
The YC W19 company led by Tarek Mansour raised $1bn from Coatue, Sequoia and a16z; 90% of US prediction market volume flows through its exchange
Summary
Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market exchange and Y Combinator W19 alumnus, raised $1bn in a Series F on or around 19 March 2026 at a $22bn valuation, led by Coatue and joined by Sequoia, A16z and Paradigm. The round doubled Kalshi's valuation from the $11bn it achieved in December 2025. Annualised revenue now exceeds $1.5bn; institutional trading volume grew 800% in the six months to closing. Kalshi holds over 90% of US prediction market activity. The company's CFTC-regulated exchange status underpins institutional demand: hedge funds, family offices and asset managers can use Kalshi inside a compliance framework that crypto-native rivals such as Polymarket cannot offer. By June 2026, Kalshi was reported to be in talks for a new round at a $40bn valuation, which would nearly double the March mark in under three months.
The split
US fintech and crypto-oriented press both cover Kalshi positively but from different angles. Fintech outlets stress the regulatory moat; crypto outlets track Kalshi alongside Polymarket as rival bets on event-driven trading as a new asset class. No international voice offers a contrarian read; the main debate is regulatory, whether the CFTC will extend or restrict event-contract scope.
By the numbers
- $1bn, Series F size.
- $22bn, post-money valuation (March 2026).
- $11bn, prior valuation (December 2025), implying a 2x in three months.
- $40bn, reported target valuation in talks as of June 2026.
- $1.5bn+, annualised revenue.
- 800%, growth in institutional trading volume over six months.
- 90%+, share of US prediction market activity.
Why it matters
Kalshi is moving prediction markets from niche speculative vehicle to institutional derivatives product. If the $40bn round closes, the company will have quadrupled its valuation within six months, a compression that has few parallels in venture history and raises questions about how regulated event markets price systemic risk versus sentiment.
What to watch
- Closing of the reported $40bn round and disclosed investors.
- CFTC rulemaking on the scope of federally regulated event contracts.
- Crypto-native rival Polymarket's next funding round and whether it seeks US regulation.
- Whether any major exchange or prime broker makes a strategic investment or acquisition offer.