Australia starts 2025/26 barley marketing year on record high with over 80% of exports going to China
Australia's barley exports reached consecutive monthly records in the opening months of the 2025/26 (November-October) marketing year, with February 2026 setting the highest single-month volume on record; more than 80% of shipments went to China, which relies on Australia for roughly 57% of its total barley imports, as China's appetite for feed barley and malting barley rebounded strongly following the removal of Australian tariffs in 2023
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Summary
Australia's barley exports to China reached record levels in the opening months of the 2025/26 marketing year (November 2025 to October 2026), with February 2026 setting the highest single-month export volume on record. More than 80% of Australia's barley shipments went to China, which relies on Australia for roughly 57% of its total barley imports across feed and malting grades. The record-breaking pace reflected the full restoration of the Australia-China barley trade relationship after Beijing removed its 80.5% tariffs on Australian barley in April 2023, following a three-year dispute that had emerged from broader diplomatic tensions. The post-tariff rebound has been faster and larger than many analysts projected, with Australian exporters including CBH Group and Emerald Grain securing expanded approvals from Chinese customs authorities and shipping stems through March-April 2026 suggesting continued strong demand.
The split
Australian grower associations and the federal government's trade ministry framed the record export pace as vindication of the diplomatic normalisation strategy with China and as a demonstration of Australian barley's competitive quality and freight advantages over alternatives from Canada, France, and Ukraine. Chinese feed industry and malting barley buyers noted that Australia's lower protein content in some barley grades suited Chinese feed formulations better than European alternatives, and that shipping costs from Australian ports gave a structural cost advantage in southern Chinese ports. International grain trade analysts noted that the pace of export could tighten domestic Australian feed grain availability and raise feeder costs for Australian livestock producers, a potential downside of the concentrated China dependency.
By the numbers
- 57% approximate share of China's total barley imports sourced from Australia
- 80%+ share of Australian barley exports destined for China in 2025/26
- February 2026: record single-month Australian barley export volume
- 4.6 million metric tonnes: estimated annual Australian barley exports to China (~AU$1.5bn value)
- April 2023: date China removed its 80.5% tariffs on Australian barley, ending the three-year dispute
- 1,509,584 tonnes: February 2026 barley export volume
Why it matters
The revival of Barley trade between Australia and China is one of the clearest examples of the commodity-trade dimension of diplomatic normalisation between the two countries after the 2020-2023 dispute. For global barley markets, Australia's dominance of Chinese imports concentrates supply-chain risk: any future diplomatic deterioration, Australian harvest shortfall, or Chinese import policy change would affect a trade flow worth over AU$1.5 billion annually. The record-pace start to 2025/26 also sets a high baseline against which any future slowdown will be measured.
What to watch
- Whether March-April 2026 exports maintain the record pace established in February
- Full 2025/26 marketing year export total versus prior records
- China's barley import demand in the second half of 2026 and any shifts between Australian, Canadian, and European barley
- Whether Australia's domestic feed grain market tightens as export volumes hit record levels