Brent slides toward $72 and WTI below $70 as Hormuz traffic recovers
Crude extends its retreat from wartime highs as tankers crowd back through the strait and traders bet on a durable US-Iran peace
Summary
Oil extended its slide on June 25, with Brent near $72.79 a barrel and WTI below $70, as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz climbed to its highest level since before the conflict escalated. Traders are pricing in a durable United States-Iran settlement and the unwinding of the war-risk premium that drove Brent toward $120 at the war's opening. Crude is now roughly 40% below its wartime peak. The drop persisted even as Iran's Revolutionary Guard rejected Oman's new Hormuz corridor, suggesting the market is discounting the rhetoric and watching the vessel counts instead.
Why it matters
Cheaper crude eases the inflation and fertiliser-price shock the war triggered, and relieves importers across Asia. It also squeezes producer budgets, pressures US shale breakevens, and weakens Russia's oil revenue as its own fuel crisis deepens. The floor depends on Hormuz staying open in practice.
What to watch
- Daily verified Hormuz crossings versus the IRGC's coordination demands.
- Whether OPEC+ adjusts output as prices fall back toward pre-war levels.
- US strategic reserve refill timing at sub-$70 WTI.