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Sharif's Rs18.77tn budget balances IMF discipline against salaried relief

Sharif's Rs18.77tn budget balances IMF discipline against salaried relief

Aurangzeb cuts salaried tax rates and scraps the surcharge while holding to the $7bn IMF programme's consolidation targets and a 17.6% higher revenue goal

Leaders·Debt· active किसका पैसा·कौन तय करता है ·6 takes ·अद्यतन 24 जून 2026

Summary

On 12 June 2026, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb presented Shehbaz Sharif's federal budget 2026-27 to the National Assembly: a total outlay of about Rs18.77 trillion, up from Rs17.6 trillion, projecting 4% growth. The budget was framed as balancing public relief against the $7bn Imf programme's consolidation targets. Salaried taxpayers got partial relief — the income surcharge was abolished and slab rates cut (the Rs2.2–3.2m band from 23% to 20%). The Federal Board of Revenue was set a Rs15.26tn collection target, 17.6% above last year. The fiscal deficit is meant to fall toward ~4% of GDP. Sharif told business leaders Pakistan had "overcome major economic challenges"; Dawn called it relief versus "IMF diktat".

The split

Dawn frames it as the coalition squeezed between relief and the IMF; Business Recorder emphasises the salaried class's grievance only partly met against a stretched FBR target; The Express Tribune relays the government's growth-and-reform pitch. Gulf outlet Arab News foregrounds welfare messaging and the creditor context. The fault line: whether modest relief is real easing or cosmetic cover for a budget still written to IMF specifications.

By the numbers

  • Rs18.77tn — total federal outlay (up from Rs17.6tn).
  • Rs15.26tn — FBR revenue target, +17.6% year-on-year.
  • ~4% — fiscal deficit target as a share of GDP, down from 7.8% in 2023.
  • 4% — projected real GDP growth.
  • $452bn — reported economy size; per-capita income up to ~$1,901 from $1,751.
  • $7bn — size of the IMF programme tied to the consolidation path.

Why it matters

The budget is the price of staying in the IMF programme that underwrites Pakistan's solvency. Holding the deficit line while granting visible relief tests whether Shehbaz Sharif's fragile coalition can sustain austerity without reigniting unrest — and whether the FBR can actually hit a target it has repeatedly missed.

What to watch

  • The next IMF review and whether the Rs15.26tn target survives a mid-year shortfall.
  • Provincial and coalition partners' follow-through on agreed measures.
  • Inflation and the rupee through the year — the real test of "relief".