Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro by double digits as the fourth-term campaign hardens
At 80, Lula runs for an unprecedented fourth term with the right's standard-bearer dogged by scandal and his father jailed
Summary
Lula, 80, is running for an unprecedented fourth term, with the general election on 4 October 2026 and a runoff on 25 October. June polls from Quaest, MDA and Atlas put Lula at roughly 41–47% in the first round against Flavio Bolsonaro at 28–34%, the gap widening on the Banco Master audio scandal and the Bolsonaro family's mounting legal exposure, including Eduardo's conviction and Jair Bolsonaro's imprisonment. Other candidates include Romeu Zema (NOVO) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD). Prediction markets implied a Lula edge. The campaign is hardening around Bolsonaro-family scandal and Lula's incumbency record.
By the numbers
- 80 — Lula's age, seeking a fourth term.
- 41–47% — Lula's first-round polling range (June).
- 28–34% — Flávio Bolsonaro's range.
- 4 Oct / 25 Oct 2026 — first round / runoff.
Why it matters
Brazil is Latin America's largest economy and democracy; a Lula fourth term versus a Bolsonaro restoration carries sharply different paths on trade, climate and the US relationship. With the right's candidate dogged by scandal and his father jailed, the race tests whether the Bolsonaro movement can field a viable standard-bearer.
What to watch
- Whether the scandals keep widening Lula's lead or the right consolidates.
- Eligibility and legal developments around the Bolsonaro family.
- Economic indicators — inflation, the Selic path, jobs — into the vote.