Petro's 'Total Peace' ends as 'Total War', armed groups stronger at his exit
ELN talks frozen since the Catatumbo massacre; violence less deadly but more pervasive, monitors find, as the transition looms
Summary
Gustavo Petro's flagship "Paz Total" has effectively collapsed. Talks with the Eln froze after the January 2025 Catatumbo offensive that killed more than 100 people and displaced some 55,000, and ELN commanders now describe the policy as "Total War." Conflict monitors find a paradox: violence under Petro became less deadly but more pervasive, while armed groups expanded territory and strength. Crisis Group argues the realistic remaining path runs through local rather than national accords. The unresolved security crisis hands incoming Abelardo de la Espriella a hardened conflict and frames the August transition.
By the numbers
- 100+ — killed in the January 2025 Catatumbo offensive.
- ~55,000 — displaced by that offensive.
- 2022 — when Petro launched "Paz Total."
Why it matters
The defining promise of Colombia's first leftist presidency — a negotiated end to all armed conflict — closes with insurgents stronger and the ELN track dead. The failure shapes the security inheritance of a right-wing successor and reopens the question of whether eradication and military pressure return as the central strategy.
What to watch
- Whether any ELN or dissident track revives before the handover.
- De la Espriella's stated security posture from 7 August.
- Territorial gains by armed groups and civilian displacement figures.